中信期货晨报：国内商品期货大面积飘红，沪银继续领涨期市-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further bullish drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term oscillation period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation in major assets in the fourth quarter, continue to hold long positions, and focus on the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: This week, the global macro focus is more on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although the US dollar liquidity seems to be in a short - term tight situation, it will not have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for the improvement of US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work, which can relieve the short - term pressure on US dollar liquidity to a certain extent [7] - Domestic Macro: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more optimistic information was seen in the October inflation data. In addition, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [7] - Asset Views: In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further bullish drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term oscillation period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation in major assets in the fourth quarter, continue to hold long positions, and focus on the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Driven by technology - related events, the growth style is active. Concerns include the overcrowding of small - cap funds. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9] - Stock Index Options: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. Concerns include the lower - than - expected liquidity in the options market. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold/Silver: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Concerns include the performance of the US fundamentals, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container Shipping to Europe: In the third quarter, the peak season has passed, and there is pressure on loading with no upward drivers. Concerns include the rate of freight decline in September. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Steel: There is limited market driving force, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Iron Ore: Pig iron production is stable in the short term, and the market is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Coke: Market sentiment is average, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Coking Coal: Supply has slightly recovered, and there is an obvious divergence between futures and spot. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Silicon Iron: There is still cost support, and attention is paid to the final pricing of steel tenders. Concerns include raw material costs and steel tender situations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Manganese Silicon: The supply - demand situation is loose, suppressing the market, and the futures price is mainly oscillating at a low level. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Glass: The inventory contradiction is intensifying, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Concerns include spot sales. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Soda Ash: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the cost - driven upward movement is limited. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Alumina: The fundamental situation is still in surplus, and the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include the failure of ore production to recover as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Aluminum: There is a linkage between stocks and futures, and the aluminum price is oscillating upward. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and lower - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9] - Zinc: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro - turning risks and the over - expected recovery of zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Lead: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Nickel: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and the failure of supply to be released as expected. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Stainless Steel: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and over - expected demand growth. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Tin: Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Industrial Silicon: The supply in the southwest region has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include over - expected supply cuts and over - expected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - Lithium Carbonate: The resumption of production expectations are fluctuating, and caution is needed for significant price fluctuations. Concerns include lower - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.5 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - LPG: Refinery out - put has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Concerns include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Asphalt: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the asphalt futures price is oscillating. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil futures price is oscillating, and attention is paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [11] - Methanol: The high - inventory situation is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is oscillating and consolidating. Concerns include macro - energy and overseas dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Urea: There is still an increase in production capacity, and the futures price is under short - term pressure. Concerns include the implementation of export quotas and the coal price market. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Ethylene Glycol: The spot market is loose, and there is still production profit. There is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. Concerns include coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] - PX: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported under the situation of strong supply and demand. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro abnormalities. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - PTA: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro abnormalities. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Short - Fiber: The market follows the "buy on dips" pattern, and attention is paid to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Bottle Chips: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. Concerns include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning situations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Propylene: Inventory still needs time to be digested, and the market is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - PP: The support from maintenance is still limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Plastic: Maintenance has decreased, and plastic is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Styrene: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - PVC: The weak reality is suppressing the market, and PVC is oscillating weakly. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Caustic Soda: The market is in a situation of low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda is oscillating. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Oils and Fats: Rapeseed oil continues to lead the oils and fats market, and attention is paid to the USDA report. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [11] - Protein Meal: The market expects the supply - demand report to be bullish, and soybean meal follows the rise of US soybeans. Concerns include weather, domestic demand, the macro environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Corn/Starch: The short - term supply tension has not been relieved, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Concerns include demand, the macro environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Pigs: The situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength in the pig market continues. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] 3.2.6 Agricultural Sector - Natural Rubber: Driven by a strong macro environment, the rubber price continues to rise. Concerns include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Synthetic Rubber: The market continues to rebound. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Cotton: The cotton price has slightly declined, and the upside and downside space of the 01 contract is expected to be limited. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded and returned above 5500 yuan/ton. Concerns include imports and Brazilian production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] - Pulp: The market is dominated by capital, and the long - position advantage remains unchanged. Concerns include macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quote fluctuations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Offset Paper: The fundamental situation has limited changes, and offset paper is oscillating within a range. Concerns include production and sales, education policies, and paper mill start - up dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - Logs: The port - arrival pressure first increases and then decreases, and logs are oscillating at a low level. Concerns include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11]