Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term excessive bearishness on oil prices is not advisable. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories are suppressing prices. Overseas production remains high, and the previous expected benefits from early overseas shutdowns have been disproven. With coal prices strong and enterprise profits declining, supply pressure persists while demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as prices may fall further [4]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large internal - external price differences and low domestic prices. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the market atmosphere, and it is expected to bottom out with limited downside [7]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on factors like limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved Chinese demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and weak demand. It is recommended to trade short - term with a neutral mindset and partially build a hedging position [9][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong with low comprehensive enterprise profits and high production. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is advisable to consider short - term short - selling opportunities [11]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of benzene is relatively abundant, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and prices may stop falling [16]. - For polyethylene, the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [19]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may face supply surplus, and the supply pressure is high. With weak supply and demand and high inventory, it may be supported in the first quarter of next year [22]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, but it is supported by aromatics blending for gasoline and long - term supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for mid - term valuation increase [26]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November due to new device launches. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the mid - term [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 17.10 yuan/barrel, a 3.66% decline, at 449.50 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. Singapore's ESG oil product data showed gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, while fuel oil and total refined oil inventories increased [7]. - Strategy: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, and currently, wait and see [2]. Methanol - Market Information: Taicang and Inner Mongolia prices were stable, and the 01 - contract on the futures market was down 5 yuan at 2103 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 [3]. - Strategy: High port inventories, strong coal prices, and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see as prices may fall [4]. Urea - Market Information: Shandong's spot price was down 10, while Henan and Hubei were stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 3 yuan at 1658 yuan, with a basis of - 68 [6]. - Strategy: Sensitive to positive news, high supply, and weak domestic demand. It is expected to bottom out with limited downside [7]. Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The opening rates of tire factories were neutral, and export new - order expectations were not high [8][9]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral mindset, trade short - term, and partially build a hedging position [10]. PVC - Market Information: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 5 yuan at 4586 yuan, with a basis of - 76. Supply was high, and demand was weak, with factory and social inventories changing [10]. - Strategy: Strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The price of pure benzene was stable, while the price of styrene increased. The BZN spread was up, and the profit of non - integrated EB devices increased. Supply was under pressure, and demand was mixed [15]. - Strategy: The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling [16]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The futures price was up, and the spot price was stable. Supply was limited, and inventory was decreasing. Seasonal demand was emerging [18]. - Strategy: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, and it is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [19]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The futures price was up, and the spot price was stable. Supply pressure was high, and demand was gradually recovering [20]. - Strategy: With supply surplus on the cost side and high inventory, it may be supported in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX - Market Information: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 62 yuan at 6836 yuan. PX load was high, and downstream PTA load was low. Inventory was expected to increase slightly [25]. - Strategy: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, mainly follow crude oil fluctuations, and there may be mid - term valuation increase opportunities [26]. PTA - Market Information: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 30 yuan at 4700 yuan, and the spot price was down. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was stable but facing pressure [27]. - Strategy: Expected to accumulate inventory in November, but there may be opportunities for strengthening driven by PXN increase in the mid - term [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan at 3892 yuan, and the spot price was down. Supply was high, and port inventory was increasing [29]. - Strategy: High supply and expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [30].
能源化工日报 2025-11-14-20251114
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-14 00:52