IEA预估全球过剩会加剧，并提?俄罗斯供给减量?险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing an increasingly imbalanced supply - demand situation, with supply growing and demand growth being mediocre compared to historical standards. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply in 2026, and the price of crude oil will be volatile in the short - term [2][8]. - The cancellation of India's domestic certification for 14 chemical imports will bring direct incremental exports for some chemicals, but the exact increase needs further exploration. A refinery accident in South China will lead to a reduction in the supply of aromatics, olefins, and refined oil [3]. - Most energy and chemical products are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - Market News: Trump lifted restrictions on oil exploration in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve. EIA data showed that the US continued to accumulate crude oil inventories last week, and the IEA月报 predicted an increase in the oversupply of global oil in 2026 [8]. - Main Logic: The oversupply situation is expected to intensify in 2026. Although the refined oil inventory pressure has eased and the crack spread is strong, providing phased support for the demand side, the supply pressure remains difficult to refute. If Russian oil supply does not decrease, the oil price may return to the oversupply pattern [8]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - Asphalt: Shandong's spot prices have stabilized, and the futures price is volatile. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10]. - High - sulfur Fuel Oil: News of the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drove the futures price down. The supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease, but the demand is still weak [11]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The weakening of refined oil led to a decline in low - sulfur fuel oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and its valuation is low, following the trend of crude oil [13]. - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is in a volatile and consolidating state [30]. - Urea: Downstream purchases on dips, and the futures price is volatile. It is under high - inventory pressure and coal - cost support [30]. - Ethylene Glycol: Although there are more device disturbances and marginal improvement in supply - demand, the oversupply pattern cannot be reversed, and the price will remain in a low - level range [22][24]. - PX: India's cancellation of BIS and the speculation of the US - Asia aromatics arbitrage window drove PX to strengthen against cost. It is expected to be volatile and warm in the short - term [16]. - PTA: India's cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial to overseas export expectations. The price will follow the cost and be volatile and warm in the short - term [17][18]. - Short - fiber: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited impact on short - fiber, and the profit is expected to be compressed under passive following [26][27]. - Bottle - chip: The price fluctuation has slightly increased, and the trading atmosphere has recovered. It follows the trend of upstream raw materials [28]. - Propylene: Downstream trading volume has increased, and PL is volatile [36]. - PP: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized. Attention should be paid to the change in maintenance [35]. - Plastic: The chemical sector has slightly stabilized, and plastic follows the trend [34]. - PVC: The cancellation of India's BIS certification may boost sentiment, but the actual export impact is limited. PVC is weakly stable [37]. - Caustic Soda: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is in a volatile state [38]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical products have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for future prices [40]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different trends, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [41]. - Inter - variety Spread: The inter - variety spreads of different energy and chemical products have changed, which is affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [42].