商品期货早班车-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold market: Suggest buying at the lower support level for gold, and consider gradually reducing long positions for silver due to a potential short squeeze [2]. - Basic metals: For copper, maintain a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation; for electrolytic aluminum, be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view; for alumina, expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. - Industrial silicon: The supply contraction is expected to be greater than the demand contraction, and the price is expected to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Polysilicon: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Tin: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. - Black industry: For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting relevant contracts [5][6]. - Agricultural products: For soybeans, focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report; for corn, expect short - term price oscillations; for palm oil, focus on production and biodiesel policies; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for eggs and pigs, expect price oscillations [7][8]. - Energy and chemical industry: For LLDPE and PP, suggest short - term oscillations and long - term short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage; for PVC, suggest short positions; for PTA, take profit on long positions and short processing fees in the far - month; for rubber, expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations; for glass, suggest a wait - and - see approach; for MEG, short at high levels; for crude oil, short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day; for styrene, expect short - term oscillations; for soda ash, suggest a wait - and - see approach [9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market performance: Overnight precious metal prices oscillated at high levels, with London gold closing at $4145 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: Trump's chief economic advisor mentioned potential job losses due to the government shutdown; multiple Fed officials expressed different views on interest rates. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various regions, and the holdings of major ETFs also changed [2]. - Trading strategy: Suggest buying gold at the lower support level and gradually reducing long positions for silver [2]. Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices rose and then fell yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and there were spot discounts in East and South China [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation [3]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.78% compared to the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2906.5 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: Be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.67% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had stable production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened lower and oscillated widely, closing at 9145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased, and both social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The demand from polysilicon supported the market, while the organic silicon monomer industry planned to cut production by 30% [4]. - Trading strategy: Expect the price to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing at 54195 yuan/ton, an increase of 735 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly output decreased slightly, and both industry and warehouse inventories increased. Downstream product prices were stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased [4]. - Trading strategy: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices rose and then fell yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and domestic warehouse receipts increased [4]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3048 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials decreased, and the production also decreased significantly. The futures discount narrowed, and the valuation was neutral [5]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The port inventory increased, and the number of ships at berth also increased. The iron ore supply - demand situation weakened marginally, and the valuation was neutral [5][6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1214 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output increased, and the steel mill profits deteriorated. The third round of price increases for coking coal was implemented, and the futures valuation was high [6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - Market performance: CBOT soybeans were slightly bullish in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean harvest was nearing completion, and the market expected the USDA to lower the US soybean yield. South American soybeans were in the sowing stage with an expected increase in production. The demand for crushing and exports improved [7]. - Trading strategy: Focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report, and the domestic market is relatively bullish in the short term, with the medium - term trend depending on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, while spot prices continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory was low, and there was a need for inventory building. The demand from deep - processing enterprises was strong, but the effective supply was insufficient in the short term. The new - crop corn was expected to increase in production, which would suppress the long - term price [7]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term price oscillations and suggest a wait - and - see approach [7]. Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose slightly yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia in October increased, and the export also increased. The near - term inventory continued to accumulate, while there was an expected seasonal production decline in the long term [7]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy and focus on future production and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market performance: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5498 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% [7]. - Fundamentals: Globally, the supply surplus expectation was increasing, and the raw sugar price reached a five - year low. In China, the market showed an internal - strong and external - weak pattern, but it would eventually follow the decline of raw sugar [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures prices fell overnight, and international crude oil prices oscillated narrowly [8]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's US cotton export data was released. The Brazilian cotton production was expected to increase. In China, the Xinjiang cotton purchase was almost completed, and the textile enterprise yarn inventory increased [8]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on the range of 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures and spot prices both fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The egg production inventory decreased, and the demand weakened after Double Eleven [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while spot prices fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig supply was still abundant, but the demand was expected to increase seasonally, and the price was expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6790 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [9]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window was closed, and the downstream demand weakened [9]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [9]. PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4585 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The PVC ex - factory price decreased, and the supply increased. The demand from downstream factories recovered less than expected, and the social inventory was high [9][10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest short positions due to weak supply and demand [10]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX was $821 per ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4600 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply of PX was high, and the overall import volume increased. The PTA supply pressure was large in the long term, and the polyester factory load was high [10]. - Trading strategy: Take profit on long positions for PX and short processing fees in the far - month for PTA [10]. Rubber - Market performance: The RU2601 contract oscillated upward, closing at 15390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% [10]. - Fundamentals: The prices of Thai rubber raw materials increased slightly, and the tire factory utilization rates and inventories changed [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations [10]. Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1055 yuan, an increase of 0.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass inventory suppressed the price, and the downstream demand was weak. The production profit varied by process [10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach as the supply - demand is weak and the downside space is limited [10]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6430 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [10]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the supply pressure increased. The downstream demand weakened [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [10][11]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China was 3981 yuan/ton, and the basis was 68 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. The polyester factory load was high, but the downstream demand weakened [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels for the 01 contract [11]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The sc contract fell sharply and then rebounded slightly [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply risk of Russian oil increased, and the OPEC + planned to increase production moderately. The demand in Europe and the US was seasonally weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6480 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal - to - high levels. The short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was still weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations, with the upside space limited by the import window [11]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1240 yuan, an increase of 1.8% [11]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash supply was stable, and the upstream had a price - supporting attitude. The inventory was balanced, and the downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was stable [11][12]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach [12].