国泰君安期货所PXPTAMEG基本面数据：对二甲苯：中期偏强，正套PTA：成本支撑偏强，MEG：供应压力边际缓解，但反弹高度或有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Medium-term trend is bullish, and positive spread arbitrage is recommended [1][4] - PTA: Sideways trading at high levels, and short the processing margin on rallies [1][4] - MEG: Medium-term trend remains bearish [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The market focused on India's cancellation of BIS certification requirements for PX, PTA, MEG and downstream polyester products, and the impact of a CDU device fire on downstream chemical plant operations. PX prices rose significantly, and MEG rebounded from the bottom [4][5] - Overseas gasoline blending demand is good, the arbitrage window for exporting Korean aromatic products such as MX and PX to the US is open, and some units have cut operating rates due to heavy losses in the disproportionation unit, resulting in tight PX supply. There will be no new domestic PX capacity in the first half of 2026, and there is a supply shortage in Southeast Asia. Based on the current high operating rate of polyester, there will still be a supply-demand gap for PX in the future [4] - Polyester load has rebounded more than expected, and PTA demand is fair. PTA operating rate has declined, and the inventory build-up pressure in the first half of November has eased. However, the future inventory build-up pattern is clear, and there is limited space for further positive spread arbitrage [4] - The future supply-demand situation of MEG remains oversupplied, and the medium-term trend remains bearish [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On November 13, the PX price remained firm. One December Asian spot was traded at $823, and the 12 - month MOPJ was estimated at $557/ton CFR [2] - PTA: The Nengtou 1 million - ton unit was shut down as planned, and the Zhongtai 1.2 million - ton unit increased its load to 90%. As of Thursday, the PTA load was adjusted to 75.7%, and the operating rate was around 81.2% [2] - MEG: As of November 13, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 72.59% (up 0.15% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 69.34% (down 2.6% from the previous period). Since October 1, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 30.075 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - based ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons [2] - Polyester: On November 13, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were polarized, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 56%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weak, with an average of about 40% [3] - On November 12, 2025, India revoked the BIS certification requirements for PX, PTA, MEG and downstream polyester products [3] Futures and Spot Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF and SC futures were 6836, 4700, 3892, 6224 and 452.9 respectively, with daily changes of 62, 30, 1, - 18 and - 16.2, and daily change rates of 0.92%, 0.64%, 0.03%, - 0.29% and - 3.45% [1] - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ and Dated Brent were $825.67/ton, 4565 yuan/ton, 3943 yuan/ton, $569.12/ton and $62.2/barrel respectively [1] - Spot Processing Margin: The PX - naphtha price difference, PTA processing margin, short - fiber processing margin, bottle - chip processing margin and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference were $241.58/ton, 168.73 yuan/ton, 259.02 yuan/ton, 54.06 yuan/ton and - $4.34/ton respectively [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA and MEG are all neutral [3] Views and Suggestions - PX: The medium - term trend is bullish, and positive spread arbitrage is recommended. Do not chase the price in the short term [4] - PTA: Sideways trading at high levels. Short the processing margin on rallies when it is above 250 - 300 [4] - MEG: The medium - term trend remains bearish [5]