国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251114

Report Overview - Date: November 14, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Lacks driving forces and is expected to trade sideways [2][8] - Soybean oil: With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil should continue to widen [2][6] - Soybean meal: Expected to trade in a bullish range, awaiting the USDA supply - demand report [2][13] - Soybean: Expected to trade in a bullish range, awaiting the report [2][13] - Corn: Expected to trade sideways [2][16] - Cotton: Lacks upward driving forces, and the futures price has slightly declined [2][20] - Eggs: Expected to maintain a sideways trend [2][26] - Live pigs: The spread between fat and standard pigs is weakening, and driving forces are emerging [2][28] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][32] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil futures prices showed minor fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 8,752 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.09%, and 8,712 yuan/ton at night, down 0.46%. Spot prices in Guangdong dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 8,570 yuan/ton [6] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia's palm oil production from January - September was over 43 million tons, up 11% year - on - year, and exports were about 25 million tons, up 13.4% year - on - year. The government is considering expanding oil palm plantations by 600,000 hectares next year and will start B50 biodiesel road tests in early December. India's palm oil imports in October decreased compared to September [7][9][10] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [12] Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: The main soybean oil contract closed at 8,316 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.34%, and 8,328 yuan/ton at night, up 0.14%. Spot prices in Guangdong remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton [6] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,071 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.59%, and 3,076 yuan/ton at night, up 0.46%. DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4,129 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.27%, and 4,168 yuan/ton at night, up 1.12%. Spot basis remained mostly stable [13] - Macro and Industry News: CBOT soybean futures closed higher, reaching a 17 - month high. Analysts expect the USDA to lower US soybean production estimates in the upcoming report. The USDA will release the global supply - demand report on Friday [13][15] - Trend Intensity: +1 for both soybean meal and soybean, indicating a bullish trend [15] Corn - Fundamental Data: The main corn contract C2601 closed at 2,186 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.37%, and 2,182 yuan/ton at night, down 0.18%. Spot prices in some regions showed slight increases [17] - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn port prices and Guangdong蛇口 prices increased slightly, and Northeast deep - processing corn prices strengthened [18] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19] Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2601 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.18%, and 13,475 yuan/ton at night, down 0.11%. Spot prices in various regions declined slightly [20] - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading weakened, and cotton yarn prices remained stable. ICE cotton futures continued to decline slightly [21] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24] Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg futures prices declined, with the 2512 contract closing at 3,040 yuan/500 kilograms, down 1.68%, and the 2601 contract closing at 3,530 yuan/500 kilograms, down 1.86%. Spot prices in some regions remained stable [26] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26] Live Pigs - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of live pigs showed different degrees of increase, with the 2601 contract closing at 11,795 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [28] - Market Information: The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, up 3.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year [29] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [30] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of peanuts showed slight increases, with the PK601 contract closing at 7,966 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. Spot prices in some regions increased [32] - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong, the peanut market showed a trend of low supply and relatively strong prices due to farmers' reluctance to sell [33] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [34]