国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and risks in Indonesia are in a game, resulting in low - level oscillations [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Lacks upward driving force, and the downside space is not extensive [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Oscillates at a high level, with potential pressure above [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decrease, with relatively strong bottom support [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the possibility of sentiment decline [2][13]. 3. Summary by Related Sections Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 118,930, with a decline compared to previous periods. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,475. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract decreased, while that of the stainless - steel main contract increased [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel mine of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. The Indonesian government imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses [4][5][7]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2511 lithium carbonate contract was 86,400, and that of the 2601 contract was 87,840. The trading volume and positions of the 2601 contract are relatively large. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased [9]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. The domestic power battery loading volume increased in October [9][10][11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, showing a neutral stance [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2601 industrial silicon contract was 9,145, and that of the PS2601 polysilicon contract was 54,195. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, while that of polysilicon increased [13]. - Macro and Industry News: India's Tata Power plans to build a large - scale solar silicon ingot and wafer manufacturing plant with a total capacity of 10 GW [13][15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1 (slightly bullish), and that of polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [15].