国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251114

Report Overview - Date: November 14, 2025 - Institution: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various black series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, providing views on their market trends such as price movements and supply - demand situations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend: Accumulated inventory pressure materialized, prices declined from high levels [2][4] - Fundamentals: Futures price was 774.0 yuan/ton, up 1.44% (11.0 yuan/ton); Open interest decreased by 29,119 hands to 501,233 hands. Imported ore prices rose slightly, and the basis between futures and some spot decreased [4] - News: On November 12, local time, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending a 43 - day government shutdown [4] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Trend: Decline in apparent demand data narrowed, prices fluctuated widely [2][6] - Fundamentals: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,046 yuan/ton, up 0.23% (7 yuan/ton); Hot - rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,254 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (4 yuan/ton). Open interest of both decreased [6] - News: On November 13, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data were released. In early November 2025, key steel enterprises' steel inventory, production data, and China's steel import and export data were also reported [7][8] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Trend: Cost provided bottom support, prices fluctuated widely [2][10] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts had small changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were stable, and some raw material prices changed slightly. Basis and spreads also changed [10] - News: New silicon - iron furnaces were put into production, and steel mills' tender information for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese was released. NMT announced the manganese ore shipping price for December 2025 [10][11][12][13] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [13] Coke and Coking Coal - Trend: Coke followed the market downward; Coking coal's supply expectation was volatile, and valuation declined [2][14][15] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased slightly. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke varieties were stable, and the basis and spreads changed [15] - News: The National Development and Reform Commission organized an energy supply meeting for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [16] - Trend Intensity: - 1 (weakly bearish) [16] Logs - Trend: Prices fluctuated repeatedly [2][17] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different log contracts had small changes, trading volume of some contracts increased significantly, and open interest had different trends. Spot prices were mostly stable [18] - News: Customs总署 decided to lift the suspension of US log imports from November 10, 2025 [20] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [20]