东吴证券晨会纪要-20251114

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The current A-share market resembles the early stages of the 2020-2021 bull market, indicating a slow bull phase driven by strategic funds, similar to the role of foreign capital in early 2020 [1][11] - The market is expected to follow a structural "innovation bull" trend in 2026, as new funds and improved performance from domestic institutions emerge [1][11] - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 shows a mild recovery driven by policy support, with significant similarities to the early 2020 recovery phase [1][11] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The bond market remains in a box range, with the central bank maintaining liquidity through reverse repos and net purchases of government bonds [2][12] - The introduction of new redemption fee regulations is anticipated to cause volatility in the bond market, but a cautious optimism is advised as the impact will be spread over time [2][12] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue a narrow range of fluctuations, with potential entry points if rates rise sharply due to new regulations [2][12] Group 3: Industry Insights - Aojie Technology is a rare domestic wireless communication baseband chip manufacturer, focusing on four main product categories, including baseband chips and ASICs [6][22] - The company is in a technology accumulation phase, with expectations of turning profitable as technology matures and product lines expand [6][22] - The market for cellular IoT is projected to enter a rapid expansion phase over the next six years, driven by advancements in 5G technology [6][22] Group 4: Company Performance - Baiji Shenzhou's core product, Zebutinib, is experiencing significant growth, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 revised upwards, indicating strong profit potential [7][9] - The company is expected to achieve rapid profit release in the coming years due to scale effects and improved cost management [7][9] - Baiji Shenzhou is positioned as a leading domestic innovative drug company, with a strong global commercialization capability [7][9]