格林期货早盘提示-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "oscillation" [1] - The investment rating for the rubber sector in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Views - For the sugar market, the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 100 million tons, lower than the previous prediction. The upward space for ICE raw sugar is limited due to the overall increasing global sugar production. In the short - term, the low industrial inventory in the domestic market supports the price of Zhengzhou sugar, but in the long - run, the supply pressure will be significant after the new sugar is on the market [1] - For the rubber market, the price of natural rubber is supported in the short - term by the continuous reduction of RU warehouse receipts and the strong raw material prices at home and abroad. However, the lack of terminal demand and the expected arrival of ships in the future will put pressure on the price. The price of synthetic rubber rebounds in the short - term due to the strong price of butadiene, but the long - term upward momentum is limited due to the sufficient supply in the domestic market [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 13, 2025, the closing price of SR601 contract was 5512 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.62%, and it closed at 5498 yuan/ton at night. The closing price of SR605 contract was 5433 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%, and it closed at 5426 yuan/ton at night [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - The closing price of the ICE raw sugar main contract on November 13, 2025 was 14.43 cents/pound, with a daily decrease of 0.96% [1] - The central government of India allowed the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than the 2 million tons requested by the industry [1] - The estimated sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of October 2025 was 29.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, and the estimated sugar production was 1.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [1] - The French Ministry of Agriculture lowered the beet production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 33.7 million tons, 500 thousand tons less than the previous forecast [1] - Datagro predicted the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to be 100 million tons, lower than the previous 2.8 billion tons [1] - The sugar production cost in India in 2025 - 26 has been pushed up to about 41.7 rupees per kilogram due to the increase in the price of sugarcane in major producing states [1] - The ethanol allocation in India was 289 billion liters, accounting for only 27.5% of the total allocation, resulting in under - utilization of the distillation capacity in the industry [1] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on November 13, 2025 was 7721, with a daily increase of 0 [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - For the external market, the ICE raw sugar main contract rose and then fell on November 13, 2025. Although there is a warming atmosphere in the short - term, the upward space is limited due to the overall increasing global sugar production [1] - For the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar showed a strong trend on November 13, 2025 and fell slightly at night. The low industrial inventory supports the price in the short - term, but the supply pressure will increase after the new sugar is on the market [1] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For the SR601 contract, pay attention to the competition between long and short positions around 5500 yuan/ton. Hold the sold call options above 5600 yuan/ton. Enterprises should sell for hedging at an appropriate time [1] 3.2 Rubber Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On November 13, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 contract was 15390 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.12%. The closing price of NR2601 contract was 12400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.81%. The closing price of BR2601 contract was 10480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48% [4] 3.2.2 Important Information - On November 13, 2025, the price of Thai RSS3 was 60.33 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.13 Thai baht/kg; the price of field latex was 56.3 Thai baht/kg, with no change [4] - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 4495 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 180 thousand tons, with an increase rate of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 678 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.74%, and the general trade inventory was 3817 thousand tons, an increase of 0.60% [4] - The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex this week was 14650 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton or 0.90%. The weekly average price of 20 - standard Thai rubber in Qingdao market was 1845 US dollars/ton, an increase of 17 US dollars/ton or 0.93%. The weekly average price of 20 - mixed Thai rubber in Qingdao market was 14656 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton or 0.92% [4] - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [4] - On November 13, 2025, the delivery price of butadiene in the central region of Shandong was between 7100 - 7200 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was between 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton [4] - This week, the trading center of some private cis - butadiene rubber resources in the north was around 9900 - 10150 yuan/ton, and the offer center of Sinopec and PetroChina resources was around 10300 - 10800 yuan/ton [4] 3.2.3 Market Logic - For natural rubber, the price strengthened on November 13, 2025. The continuous reduction of RU warehouse receipts and the strong raw material prices at home and abroad increased the market's willingness to support the price. However, the lack of terminal demand and the expected arrival of ships in the future will put pressure on the price [4] - For synthetic rubber, the supply price of butadiene was strong recently, but the domestic market supply may still be abundant in the future. The raw material support for far - month cis - butadiene rubber is still limited. Although the cis - butadiene rubber rebounded at a low level in the short - term due to the increase in the butadiene price, the long - term upward momentum is limited [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Hold short - term long positions in the rubber sector for observation or take profits in a timely manner [4]