国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2]. - Copper: Macro - level disturbances limit price increases [2]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2]. - Tin: Pulled back from a high [2]. - Aluminum: Tend to fluctuate upward [2]. - Alumina: Trading at the bottom [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: High inventory accumulation competes with risks in Indonesia, trading at a low level [2]. - Stainless steel: Lacks upward momentum, but the downside is also limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 961.22 with a daily increase of 1.63%, and its night - session closing price was 956.96 with a 0.11% increase. Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 12588 with a 4.34% daily increase, and its night - session closing price was 12405.00 with a 0.40% increase. Trading volumes and positions of both gold and silver contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day [4]. - Inventory and ETF: Gold and silver ETF positions and inventory levels also changed. For example, the SPDR Gold ETF position increased by 2 to 1,048.93, and the SLV Silver ETF position (the day before yesterday) increased by 85 to 15,173.28 [4]. - News: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicts that the probability of an interest rate cut in December is less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown [4][7]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 87,550 with a 0.82% daily increase, and its night - session closing price was 87400 with a - 0.17% change. The London Copper 3M electronic - trading closing price was 10,859 with a - 0.35% change [8]. - Inventory and Spread: Copper inventories in Shanghai and London decreased, and various spreads also showed different changes [8]. - News: China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the US government shutdown ended. The US officially included copper in the new key mineral list [8][10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22740 with a 0.26% daily increase, and the London Zinc 3M electronic - trading closing price was 3072 with a 0.10% increase. Trading volumes and positions of both Shanghai and London zinc contracts changed [11]. - News: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks [11]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17670 with a 0.06% daily increase, and the London Lead 3M electronic - trading closing price was 2092 with a 1.21% increase. Trading volumes and positions of both Shanghai and London lead contracts changed [14]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai lead inventories increased, while London lead inventories decreased. Various spreads also showed different changes [14]. - News: China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the US government shutdown ended [14]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a 1.95% daily increase, and the London Tin 3M electronic - trading closing price was 37,065 with a - 0.91% change. Trading volumes and positions of both Shanghai and London tin contracts changed [18]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai tin inventories increased, and London tin inventories remained unchanged. Various spreads also showed different changes [18]. - News: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, etc [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22050, with certain changes compared with previous trading days. Alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding price and trading - volume data changes [22]. - Inventory and Spread: LME aluminum inventories and various spreads showed different trends [22]. - News: China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and the US government shutdown ended [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 118,930, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,475. Trading volumes and positions of both nickel and stainless - steel contracts changed [25]. - News: An Indonesian mining company's mining area was taken over, and the Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses [25][28].