宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-14-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of being weak, a medium - term outlook of being volatile, and an intraday view of being weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Movement and Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak, with an overall expectation of weak operation [1]. - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. Driving Logic - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - The US EIA simultaneously lowered the price forecasts of US crude oil and Brent crude oil for this year and next year, and the latest weekly inventory continued to decline, but the decline was weaker than expected [5]. - There is a lack of new demand drivers at the macro level, coupled with a slight strengthening of the US dollar. Speculative funds reduced their positions, and the WTI far - month contract showed a contango structure, intensifying short - term selling pressure [5].