宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年11月14日）-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, suggesting an oscillation approach. The core logic is that the market's wait - and - see sentiment is increasing, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of coking coal [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight downward bias" respectively, also suggesting an oscillation approach. The core logic is that the support from the raw material end has eased, causing coke to oscillate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Price Movement and View: The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of an "oscillation approach" [5]. - Driving Logic: The National Development and Reform Commission recently held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, mainly focused on ensuring the supply of thermal coal for power generation and winter heating, which has limited impact on coking coal. There are still differences in the market regarding the coking coal supply at the end of the year, and the futures main contract has retraced at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range. The key lies in the actual supply of coking coal [5]. Coke (J) - Price Movement and View: The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight downward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of an "oscillation approach" [6]. - Driving Logic: In the spot market, the latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1620 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week, while the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1540 yuan/ton, down 1.91% week - on - week. This week, the industrial game has intensified, and the fourth round of spot price increase for coke has been blocked. There are still differences in the supply of coke raw materials, and the retracement of coking coal at the upper edge of the oscillation range has dragged down the coke futures trend. The focus is on the actual supply of coking coal at the end of the year [6].