甲醇日评20251114：低估值，弱驱动-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already relatively low, so it is not recommended to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. However, the short - term upward drive for methanol is limited. It is mainly restricted by two factors: Iran's winter gas restrictions are less than expected, imports may remain high, and port inventory pressure is difficult to reduce; the current raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises is about 710,000 tons, which is relatively high in the past five years, and the downstream restocking power is temporarily insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Price and Related Data - Methanol Futures Prices: On November 13, 2025, MA01 was 2,103 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day; MA05 was 2,208 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.14%; MA09 was 2,231 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.09% [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: Spot prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged on November 13, 2025 compared to the previous day. The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 35.50 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan [1]. - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: As of November 13, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 coal remained at 610 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 coal was 700 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan or 0.36%, and Yulin Q6000 coal remained at 680 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. - Methanol Profit: As of November 13, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol remained at 100.30 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 1,310 yuan/ton, the profit of Northwest MTO remained at 41.20 yuan/ton, the profit of East China MTO was - 561.07 yuan/ton, down 23.50 yuan or 4.37%. The profit of acetic acid was 423.22 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan or 1.28%, the profit of MTBE remained unchanged, and the profit of formaldehyde was - 260.60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 1.88% [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2,106 yuan/ton, closing at 2,103 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,038,707 lots and an open interest of 1,382,830, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: Currently, a total of 11 methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are operating at their existing loads, with an overall average operating load of 75.82%. As of the previous day, the overall methanol loading volume in this Middle - Eastern country was 275,000 tons, and the loading speed was relatively slow. Attention should be paid to the later natural gas supply and local plant operating conditions [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them (viewpoint score: 0) [1].