铅锌日评20251114：沪铅高位整理，沪锌或有回调-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and refinery operations have rebounded, improving the tight supply situation. As a result, lead prices face upward pressure [1]. - For zinc, overseas structural risks have diminished, and there is insufficient upward momentum for zinc prices. Zinc prices are under pressure. In the medium - term, the fourth - quarter zinc ore supply will tighten, and TC is likely to fall, which will support zinc prices to some extent [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,500.00 yuan/ton, up 1.01% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price was 17,650.00 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,092.00 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.44 [1]. Fundamental Information - In the central China region, large lead smelters are affected by environmental control, with raw material arrivals slightly affected and the disassembly volume of waste lead - acid batteries declining. If environmental control is lifted on Saturday, the disassembly volume may increase slightly next week [1]. - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has a small - scale fluctuation [1]. - The operation of secondary lead has recovered to over 50%, with supply increasing, mainly for delivering previous scattered orders, and the inventory accumulation of refineries is not obvious [1]. - Terminal markets have improved, and the operation of lead - battery enterprises is okay, with demand increasing [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,560.00 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price was 22,740.00 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 3,072.00 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 7.40, up 0.26% [1]. Fundamental Information - Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In October, domestic TC may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and monthly production is expected to be around 600,000 tons [1]. - There is no significant improvement in demand. With the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. Trading Strategy - Lightly short at high levels [1].