多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压铜价：沪铜日评20251114-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Multiple Fed officials turning hawkish on a December rate cut may put pressure on copper prices. The supply side has production disruptions in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products have increased, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness. In the inventory end, the inventories of electrolytic copper in China, LME, and COMEX have all increased compared to last week. Therefore, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract: On November 13, 2025, the closing price was 87,550, the trading volume was 102,298 lots, the open interest was 201,007 lots, and the inventory was 43,957 tons. The basis was - 340, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 87,210 [3]. - LME 3 - month Copper Futures: On November 13, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 10,859, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 5.96, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 123.33 [3]. - COMEX Copper: On November 13, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.0575, and the total inventory was 379,439 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disruptions, making the China copper concentrate import index negative and the domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation tight. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [3]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For long positions established earlier, take profits when the price rises. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, the support level is around 10,300 - 10,500, and the resistance level is around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, the support level is around 4.5 - 4.8, and the resistance level is around 5.2 - 5.5 [3].