有色金属日报 2025-11-14-20251114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk appetite is under pressure due to the downgraded probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, but the tight supply pattern of refined copper provides strong support for copper prices. Aluminum prices may rise further due to supply concerns and improved export expectations. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upside. Tin prices are expected to be in a tight balance and show a strong - side oscillation. Nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Lithium carbonate prices need to pay attention to high - level selling pressure. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [2][3][4][5][9][12][13][15][18][19][22][24][27] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The copper price rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly compared to Monday. The spot import of domestic copper was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [2] - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term risk appetite is under pressure, but the tight supply of refined copper provides support for copper prices. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 86500 - 88000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME copper 3M contract is 10750 - 11100 dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices rose and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the spot in the Guangdong region changed from a discount to a premium [4] - Strategy Viewpoint: Supply concerns and improved export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21880 - 22200 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2850 - 2900 dollars/ton [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract rose, the trading volume increased, and the inventory decreased [8] - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost provides strong support, and the demand is average. The price is expected to follow aluminum prices [9] Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index closed slightly lower, and the LME lead price rose. The domestic social inventory increased slightly [11] - Strategy Viewpoint: The shortage of raw materials restricts production, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [12][13] Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index closed higher, and the LME zinc price rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [14] - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc smelting profit is under pressure, and the inventory accumulation slows down. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upside [15] Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. The supply is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support [17] - Strategy Viewpoint: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips [18] Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of nickel pig iron fell, and the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant [19] - Strategy Viewpoint: In the short - term, it is recommended to observe. If the price drops enough or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established [19] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, the output increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21] - Strategy Viewpoint: The rise of lithium - battery stocks drives the futures market, but attention should be paid to high - level selling pressure [22] Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index rose, the inventory remained unchanged, and the import was at a loss [24] - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of overseas ore is expected to increase, and the production reduction expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to observe in the short - term [24] Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract price rose, the inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [26][27] - Strategy Viewpoint: The market is in a weak oscillation due to over - supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to remain weak in the short - term [27]