Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non - ferrous metals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures may face tests and show volatile trends, while bond futures are affected by financial data. In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. In the black metals and non - ferrous metals markets, prices are influenced by factors such as raw material costs, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions [17][26][60]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, the market rose strongly and reached a new high. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a ten - year high, and the total market value of the two markets reached a new high. However, overnight US stocks fell sharply, and the index will face another test and may show a volatile trend [19][20][21]. - Trading strategy: Adopt high - selling and low - buying for single - side trading; conduct IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; use bullish spread options when the price is low [21]. Bond Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's open - market net injection of short - term liquidity made the market capital more relaxed. The release of October financial data showed that credit expansion slowed down, but the probability of monetary policy intensification was not high [22][23][25]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading; hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) and try to go long on the T contract's current - quarter to next - quarter inter - period spread [25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market situation: The CBOT soybean index rose. The trade relationship is still favorable, but the domestic soybean meal crushing profit is in a significant loss, and the supply has great uncertainty. The rapeseed meal market changes little and is expected to fluctuate [27][28]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and arbitrage; use the strategy of selling a wide straddle for options [28][29]. Sugar - Market situation: The international sugar price fluctuated, and the domestic sugar price was slightly stronger. The global main producing areas are increasing production, but the expected sugar surplus has been significantly reduced. The domestic sugar mills are gradually starting production, and the supply pressure is increasing, but the import tightening and high production costs support the price [30][32][33]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the international sugar price fluctuates, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate within a range; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [33]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market situation: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil changed. The Malaysian palm oil inventory will gradually decrease slightly, the Indonesian palm oil inventory is low, the domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating, the soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction, and the domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory [34][37]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the short - term oil lacks bullish drivers, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct high - selling and low - buying; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [37][38]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market situation: The CBOT corn futures rose. The domestic corn inventory decreased, the feed enterprise inventory increased, the processing volume and starch production increased, and the starch inventory decreased slightly. The Northeast and North China corn prices rose [39][40][41]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the December CBOT corn fluctuates at the bottom, and short - term long positions can be taken on pullbacks; wait and see for the January contract, and wait for pullbacks for the May and July contracts; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [41]. Live Pigs - Market situation: The live pig price rebounded slightly, the piglet price rose, and the sow price remained stable. The short - term slaughter pressure improved, but the overall inventory was still high [42][43]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, lightly establish short positions; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; use the strategy of selling a wide straddle for options [43]. Peanuts - Market situation: The average price of peanuts increased, the oil mill's purchase price was under pressure, and the inventory of peanut oil and peanuts increased. The new peanuts are on the market, the import volume has decreased significantly, and the price of peanut meal is stable [44][45]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the January peanut fluctuates at the bottom, and long positions can be established on pullbacks for the May peanut; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [45][46]. Eggs - Market situation: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas decreased slightly, and that in the main selling areas remained stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, the number of culled hens decreased, the egg sales volume decreased, and the inventory decreased [47][48][49]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49]. Apples - Market situation: The apple cold - storage inventory ratio was lower than last year, the import volume decreased, and the export volume increased slightly. The apple price was basically stable, and the quality was poor this year [52][53]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, consider going long on pullbacks; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [53][54]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market situation: The ICE US cotton futures fell. The Xinjiang cotton picking is nearing completion, the new cotton will be on the market in large quantities, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [56][57]. - Trading strategy: It is expected that the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate in the short term; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [58]. Black Metals Steel - Market situation: The social financing scale increased year - on - year, but the growth rate decreased. The supply and inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the steel price fluctuates within a range [60][61]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the steel price fluctuates within a range; for arbitrage, go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [62]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market situation: The coking coal auction had a high non - trading rate, and the steel mill was in a loss state. The fourth - round price increase of coke was partially implemented. The short - term driving force is not obvious, and the market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [63][64]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, wait and see in the short term and consider going long on pullbacks in the medium term; conduct a 1/5 reverse spread for coking coal; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [65]. Iron Ore - Market situation: The iron ore price rebounded slightly at night. The supply is at a high level in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak [66]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [67]. Ferroalloys - Market situation: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, and the supply was high while the demand was expected to decline. The manganese ore spot was slightly strong, and the manganese silicon spot was slightly weak. The cost has support, and the previous short positions can be reduced [68]. - Trading strategy: Reduce the previous short positions on pullbacks for single - side trading; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Market situation: London gold and silver fell, and Shanghai gold and silver rose. The US government ended the shutdown, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks dampened the market sentiment. The precious metals market had a short - term profit - taking, but it is expected to remain volatile at a high level [70][71][72]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver cautiously; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; continue to hold the collar call option strategy [73]. Copper - Market situation: The Shanghai copper futures rose slightly, and the LME copper fell. The US government ended the shutdown, but Fed officials' hawkish remarks pressured the copper price. The supply decreased, and the demand was supported by the power grid's centralized bidding. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [74][75]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider a long - term long - position strategy; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [77]. Alumina - Market situation: The alumina futures rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. The supply exceeded demand, but the downstream electrolytic aluminum plant was stocking up. There is a continuous expectation of production cuts, but the actual production cuts have not occurred, and there is medium - term pressure [78][80]. - Trading strategy: Be vigilant against the selling pressure caused by the enlarged basis after the price rebound; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [82]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market situation: The Shanghai aluminum futures rose, and the spot price increased. The Fed officials' hawkish remarks affected the market sentiment. The overseas supply - demand situation is tight, and the domestic consumption is resilient [83][84]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the price trend is strong, and profit - taking can be considered at 22100 - 22500 yuan; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [84]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: The cast aluminum alloy futures and spot prices rose. The US government ended the shutdown, and Fed officials' remarks were hawkish. The cost has support, but the demand is affected by the high price. The alloy price follows the upward trend of aluminum [86][87]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the alloy price is strong following the aluminum price; for arbitrage, go long on AD and short on AL; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [88]. Zinc - Market situation: The LME zinc and Shanghai zinc futures fell. The domestic inventory decreased, the processing fee decreased, and there is an expectation of production cuts. The export window is open, but the upward space is limited [89][91]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the price fluctuates within a range; for arbitrage, hold the SHFE long and LME short position; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [92]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead and Shanghai lead futures fell. The supply is recovering, the demand is weakening, and the domestic inventory may accumulate [93]. - Trading strategy: Hold the short - profit position and be vigilant against the impact of funds on the price; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [95]. Nickel - Market situation: The LME nickel price fell, and the inventory decreased. The refined nickel supply - demand is loose, the price of high - nickel iron and nickel sulfate is weak, and the market is pessimistic [96]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, sell on rebounds; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [97]. Stainless Steel - Market situation: The supply and demand are weak, and the raw material is under pressure. No specific trading strategy was provided in the text.
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251114
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-14 03:08