华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center continuing to shift downward in a weak supply - demand situation and low winter storage [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term, running at a high level with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and high - level pressure [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center shifted downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong performance. With the US government reopening, the US dollar fell, and traders were waiting for economic data [1] - Domestically, the supply of electrolytic aluminum was stable. Overseas, an aluminum plant in Iceland cut production due to electrical equipment failure, and a plant in Mozambique might cut or stop production due to an energy agreement issue, leading to an expected supply tightening [2] - This week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease. The overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.4 percentage points to 62%, showing a structural differentiation [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - The premium of the US spot aluminum price reached a record high due to high import tariffs and global supply tightness [2] - With a positive macro - environment and expected overseas supply tightening, a large amount of funds flowed into Shanghai aluminum futures, driving up the price. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continued. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream was weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was increasing [3]