农产品日报：糖价止跌反弹，郑棉窄幅整理-20251114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - Cotton: Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Before the Chinese New Year, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price may hit a new low next year [4] - Pulp: Although the pulp price is boosted by macro sentiment, the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upside space is restricted. Attention should be paid to the demand in the fourth quarter [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,490 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,614 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [1] - Import Data: In September, Thailand imported 8,023 tons of cotton, a 11.4% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year decrease. From August 2025 to July 2026, Thailand's cumulative cotton imports were about 17,000 tons, a 2.2% year - on - year decrease. The United States was the largest source of imports, accounting for 54.5%, followed by Australia (28.6%) and Brazil (9.0%) [1] Market Analysis - International: In late October, China and the United States reached a phased consensus, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, improving the macro sentiment. However, due to the US government shutdown, key industrial data were postponed. With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere on the market, supply pressure is being released, and weak global textile consumption limits the upside of the outer market [2] - Domestic: As the cotton harvest progresses, the expected new - cotton output has declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, supporting the market. But new cotton is still expected to increase in production, and downstream demand is weak [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - Policy News: Mexico has imposed a new tariff on sugar imports. All types of sugar are subject to a 156% tariff per kilogram, and refined sugar is subject to a 210.44% tariff. Previously, the tariff was 360 - 390 US dollars/ton [3] Market Analysis - Raw Sugar: Brazil's exports are strong, and India's production is expected to rebound, suppressing market confidence. The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of raw sugar is limited [4] - Zhengzhou Sugar: Although there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase in the new season, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and stricter syrup control policies support the price in the short term [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5,534 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+0.95%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Import Data: In October 2025, China imported 2.618 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.5317 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 585.06 US dollars/ton. From January to October, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 4.8% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with the previous year [5] Market Analysis - Supply: In September, European pulp port inventories declined month - on - month but remained high. Domestic pulp imports increased in September, and port inventories have been high for a long time, with the supply situation remaining unchanged [5] - Demand: Pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and global pulp mills face inventory pressure. Domestic demand is weak, and although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [5]