光大期货金融期货日报-20251114

Group 1: Research Views - The stock market showed a strong upward trend throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high and the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. Nearly 4,000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed higher, and over a hundred stocks hit the daily limit. The trading volume on that day was 2.07 trillion yuan. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.55% [1]. - The recent meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea is conducive to the improvement of China's total demand and the valuation of A - share technology stocks compared to US stocks. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focuses on several main lines, which boosts market confidence and is expected to continue the structured market. However, the valuation of the Sci - tech Innovation Index is at a historical extreme, so be cautious about chasing high prices. In the short term, after the release of the third - quarter reports, the market may refocus on fundamentals. The cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of non - financial A - shares in the third - quarter reports was +0.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent was +1.65%. ROE (TTM) was 6.5%, still in a low - level oscillation range [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, while the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts remained basically stable. The central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 13, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. The net injection was 92.8 billion yuan. DR001 was 1.32% and DR007 was 1.49%. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is beneficial to the bond market. With the increase in local government bonds and the implementation of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments, the economic outlook in the fourth quarter is stable. The pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not great, so the short - term necessity for the central bank to cut interest rates is low. Affected by the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, the bond market is expected to continue the oscillation pattern [1][2]. Group 2: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose from 3,042.8 to 3,068.8, an increase of 26.0 points or 0.85% [3]. - IF rose from 4,628.0 to 4,677.0, an increase of 49.0 points or 1.06% [3]. - IC rose from 7,155.2 to 7,269.0, an increase of 113.8 points or 1.59% [3]. - IM rose from 7,369.8 to 7,478.4, an increase of 108.6 points or 1.47% [3]. Stock Indexes - The Shanghai 50 Index rose from 3,044.3 to 3,073.7, an increase of 29.4 points or 0.96% [3]. - The CSI 300 Index rose from 4,645.9 to 4,702.1, an increase of 56.2 points or 1.21% [3]. - The CSI 500 Index rose from 7,243.2 to 7,355.3, an increase of 112.0 points or 1.55% [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose from 7,486.4 to 7,590.6, an increase of 104.2 points or 1.39% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - TS fell from 102.47 to 102.46, a decrease of 0.01 points or - 0.01% [3]. - TF fell from 105.97 to 105.89, a decrease of 0.085 points or - 0.08% [3]. - T fell from 108.52 to 108.41, a decrease of 0.11 points or - 0.10% [3]. - TL fell from 116.45 to 116.13, a decrease of 0.32 points or - 0.27% [3]. Group 3: Market News - The China Financial Regulatory Administration will soon release the newly revised "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to support the mergers, reorganizations, and transformation and upgrading of various enterprises, including science and technology innovation enterprises. The administration is also collaborating with other departments to study policies for the high - quality development of science and technology insurance [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of their monthly basis [6][7][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of basis for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the historical trends of inter - period spreads for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][18][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [22][23][26][27]. Group 5: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the current director of the macro - finance research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures practice qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [29]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, and is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [29].