CMS·2025-11-14 05:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group [3] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and retail revenue of 250.6 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year. Retail operating profit reached 14.8 billion yuan, a 27.7% increase year-on-year [1][5] - The report highlights the robust growth in the daily necessities category and the rapid expansion of third-party service revenue, while the electric category faced growth pressure due to high base effects from government subsidies [1][5] - The report expresses optimism about JD's strong self-operated supply chain and its ability to maintain a solid competitive edge in the long term [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 Non-GAAP net profit was 5.8 billion yuan, down 56% year-on-year, but better than the expected decline of 70% [1][5] - The report projects that JD's retail revenue and profit will continue to grow at double-digit rates year-on-year for the full year [1][5] - The report anticipates that JD's Non-GAAP net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 31.8 billion yuan, 36.8 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] Business Segment Insights - The report notes that JD's food delivery business is steadily developing, with losses narrowing quarter-on-quarter, and highlights the potential for further loss reduction in the future [1][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of user engagement and conversion rates from the food delivery segment, which are improving and contributing to overall growth [1][5] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for JD Group is set at 136.5 HKD per share, based on a 10x PE ratio for 2026 Non-GAAP net profit [3][5] - The current stock price is 124.4 HKD, indicating potential upside [3]