化工日报：全钢胎开工率环比下降-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of natural rubber is strongly supported, but there is potential for inventory accumulation in the domestic market. It is recommended to focus on the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which is beneficial for the expansion of the price difference between RU and NR. The supply of BR is expected to remain stable in the short - term due to maintenance, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene. The inventory accumulation pattern may continue, but the loss of butadiene production profit may limit future output [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,390 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,400 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In October 2025, the sales volume of the domestic heavy - truck market was about 93,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million units after November [2] - Global natural rubber: In September 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Rubber imports: In October 2025, China imported 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% [3] - Passenger - car market: In October, the retail volume of the domestic passenger - car market was 2.242 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In September 2025, the EU passenger - car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 units, and the cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million units [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 13, 2025, the RU basis was - 540 yuan/ton (- 70), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 610 yuan/ton (+ 90), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.33 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.13), Thai glue was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10) [5] -开工率: The all - steel tire production rate was 64.29% (- 1.08%), and the semi - steel tire production rate was 72.99% (+ 0.10%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+ 1,787), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+ 345), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (- 1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+ 3,931) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 13, 2025, the BR basis was - 130 yuan/ton (- 50), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,000 yuan/ton (+ 100), etc. [7] -开工率: The production rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.92% (+ 3.91%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,970 tons (+ 1,450), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,850 tons (+ 80) [9]