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永安期货恒生指数早报-20251114

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish comments have dampened expectations for a rate cut in December, with the probability now below 50%[8] - China's social financing growth in October hit its lowest level in over a year, with new loans at 2.19 trillion yuan (approximately $219 billion), significantly below the expected 1.2 trillion yuan[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73% to 4029.5 points, marking a ten-year high, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.78% and the ChiNext Index by 2.55%[1] Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.56% at 27073.03 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.8% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 0.63%[1] - Major U.S. indices saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.65% at 47457.22 points, the S&P 500 down 1.66% at 6737.49 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.29% at 22870.36 points[1] Sector Highlights - The lithium sector experienced a surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up[1] - Precious metals led the market gains, alongside significant increases in innovative pharmaceuticals[1] Corporate Developments - Tencent's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, growing by 15% year-on-year to 192.9 billion yuan (approximately $27.2 billion), with a net profit increase of about 19%[11] - Tencent has reached an agreement with Apple to handle payments for WeChat mini-games, with a 15% revenue share, resolving a long-standing dispute[11] Economic Indicators - China's October industrial output and retail sales growth are expected to slow down, reflecting weak loan demand and overall economic activity[11] - The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil supply surplus for 2026, predicting a surplus of approximately 4 million barrels per day[11]