有色商品日报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated higher, with domestic spot refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The Fed Chair cooled the December interest - rate cut expectation, showing increasing internal differences. The US House will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown. Domestically, the central bank emphasized policy balance. LME copper inventories remained at 136,250 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,156 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,124 tons, and BC copper warrants increased by 575 tons. Downstream demand was restricted by high - price concerns. LME is seeking opinions on new rules. Short - term outlook is somewhat optimistic, but overall, it may show a high - level震荡 market as the off - season approaches [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated stronger. Alumina factory profits are being compressed, with occasional production cuts but no large - scale reduction for long - term supply. Alumina inventories are increasing. The internal and external market situations are different. The US interest - rate cut expectation is rising, while the domestic demand is weakening and the processing end is facing environmental restrictions. Electrolytic aluminum is in a multi - factor situation, likely to continue high - level adjustment in the short term. Aluminum alloy follows the adjustment [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME nickel inventories decreased by 144 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 32,694 tons. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain is weak, with nickel - iron prices falling and stainless - steel inventories rising slightly. In the new - energy industry chain, the discount coefficient increased slightly, but the production of ternary precursors decreased in November. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is obvious, and the price may fluctuate, with attention to inventory changes [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Analyzed macro factors, inventory changes, demand, policy, and market sentiment, concluding that short - term is somewhat optimistic but overall may be a high - level震荡 market [1]. - Aluminum: Discussed price trends, factory profits, inventory, and market differences at home and abroad, suggesting short - term high - level adjustment [1][2]. - Nickel: Considered price changes, inventory, and industry chain situations, indicating price fluctuations due to inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Provided price changes of various copper products, inventory changes in different markets, and other data such as import and export profits [4]. - Lead: Showed price changes of lead products, inventory changes, and import and export profits [4]. - Aluminum: Presented price, raw material, inventory, and import and export profit data of aluminum and related products [5]. - Nickel: Included price changes of nickel products, inventory changes, and industry chain product price data [5]. - Zinc: Gave price, inventory, and processing fee data of zinc and related products [7]. - Tin: Provided price, inventory, and import and export profit data of tin and related products [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.1 Spot Premium: Presented spot premium charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][16]. - 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Showed SHFE near - far month spread charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][22][24]. - 3.3 LME Inventory: Displayed LME inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - 3.4 SHFE Inventory: Presented SHFE inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - 3.5 Social Inventory: Showed social inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - 3.6 Smelting Profit: Displayed charts of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [50][51][52]