光大期货碳酸锂日报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 13, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.39% to 87,840 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 76,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 779 tons to 27,508 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 11 tons to 21,545 tons. In November, the expected production of lithium carbonate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 92,080 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in November increased by 1% to 85,000 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4% to 410,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons [3]. - Demand is both the driver of price and a strong support below the price. There are significant differences between bulls and bears in the current futures price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and positions, as well as the actual resumption time of lithium ore projects in Jiangxi and the potential supply growth after resumption, and the possible off - season in the power sector in the first quarter after the pre - consumption this year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures and Lithium Ore Prices: The closing price of the main futures contract rose by 1,260 yuan/ton to 87,840 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract rose by 1,480 yuan/ton to 86,400 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 17 US dollars/ton to 1,001 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) rose by 30 yuan/ton to 1,450 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium Salt and Related Product Prices: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 76,180 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 5,500 yuan/ton to 131,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 850 yuan/ton to - 8,170 yuan/ton [5]. - Prices of Precursors and Cathode Materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 105,500 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) rose by 1,000 yuan/ton to 154,325 yuan/ton [5]. - Battery Prices: The prices of various types of battery cells and batteries remained unchanged on November 7, 2025, compared with October 31, 2025 [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: The report provides charts of the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - Price Differences: There are charts depicting the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][21]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts display the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][29]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from March 27, 2025, to November 13, 2025 [37][39]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41].