原油日报：尼日利亚丹格特炼厂RFCC将于12月停产检修-20251114

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the RFCC unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery in December will intensify the global gasoline shortage and reduce WTI crude oil procurement, negatively impacting crude oil demand [2]. - The recent divergence between the crude oil and refined oil markets is due to the limited upward flexibility of refinery operations under refinery capacity elimination and the continuous tightness of refining capacity caused by Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries [2]. 2. Market Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures rose 20 cents to $58.69 a barrel, a 0.34% increase; the January - delivery Brent crude oil futures in London rose 30 cents to $63.01 a barrel, a 0.48% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.62% at 452 yuan per barrel [1]. - For the week ending November 7 in the US, EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 346,000 barrels (previous value: 300,000 barrels), EIA crude oil inventory was 6.413 million barrels (expected: 1.96 million barrels, previous value: 5.202 million barrels), and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 798,000 barrels (previous value: 498,000 barrels) [1]. - The IEA monthly report forecasts the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 to be 788,000 barrels per day (previously expected: 710,000 barrels per day), with the total demand in 2026 expected to average 104.7 million barrels per day. OPEC + supply is expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day by 2025 and 1.3 million barrels per day by 2026. It also expects the growth of oil demand to slow down in the fourth quarter while supply will further increase [1]. 3. Industry News - The Trump administration has lifted restrictions on oil exploration in the 23 - million - acre Alaska National Petroleum Reserve, reversing a ban implemented by former President Biden. Alaska predicts that the oil field's crude oil production will rise to 139,600 barrels per day in fiscal year 2033, a significant increase from 15,800 barrels per day in fiscal year 2023 [1]. - South Sudan is asking crude oil producers to prepay a total of $2.5 billion and plans to repay through future production that originally belongs to Malaysia's national oil company. South Sudan's national treasury is depleted, and over 90% of its government revenue depends on crude oil exports, which have been almost entirely frozen due to the war in neighboring Sudan [1]. 4. Investment Strategy - In the short term, oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; in the medium term, a short - position allocation is recommended, with a strategy of shorting the calendar spread (buying far - dated contracts and selling near - dated contracts, for Brent or WTI) [3]