光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Urea is expected to have a firm and volatile trend. Although the market sentiment has slightly improved with the release of the fourth export quota, the downstream follow - up sentiment is still cautious, and the domestic demand support is weak. The fundamental pressure remains, and the upward momentum of the futures market is not obvious [2]. - Soda ash is also expected to show a firm and volatile trend. The supply has slightly declined this week, and the inventory of the middle and upper reaches has decreased. The demand is weakly stable. The futures market is relatively active, but more drivers are needed for continuous upward movement [2]. - Glass is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state. The supply is stable, the demand follow - up is cautious, and the glass factory may continue to reduce prices to destock. The market drive is limited, and the futures price has fallen to a low - valuation range [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Urea: On Thursday, the spot price was mostly stable with slight fluctuations in some areas. The supply level fluctuated slightly, with a daily output of 19.75 tons on November 13, a decrease of 0.06 tons from the previous day. The demand sentiment slowed down, with an average production - sales rate of only 30% in the domestic mainstream areas. The market sentiment improved with the export quota announcement, but the downstream was still cautious [2]. - Soda ash: On Thursday, the spot price was basically stable, and the trader's quotation increased with the futures market sentiment. This week, the supply level slightly declined, with the industry operating rate dropping by 0.87 percentage points and the production decreasing by 1.01%. The enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 0.4%, and the social inventory decreased by more than 20,000 tons. The demand was weakly stable [2]. - Glass: On Thursday, the spot price continued to decline. The supply remained stable, with a daily melting volume of 15.91 tons. The demand follow - up was cautious, with a production - sales rate of 85% - 95% in the mainstream areas. The glass factory's inventory increased by 0.18% this week, and there is a possibility of price - cutting to destock [2]. Market Information - Urea: On November 13, the futures warehouse receipts were 6,958, unchanged from the previous day, with 440 valid forecasts. The daily output was 19.75 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons from the previous day and an increase of 1.39 tons compared to the same period last year. The opening rate was 84.43%, 3.19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of November 12, the enterprise inventory was 148.36 tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons and 5.99% week - on - week [5][6]. - Soda ash and Glass: On November 13, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 5,804, a decrease of 547 from the previous day, with 1,354 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 495, a decrease of 3 from the previous day. The soda ash production in the week ending November 13 was 739,300 tons, a decrease of 7,600 tons and 1.01% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate was 84.80%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. As of November 13, the soda ash factory inventory was 1.7073 million tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from Monday and a decrease of 6,900 tons and 0.40% from the previous Thursday. The average price of the float glass market on November 13 was 1,143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton day - on - day. As of November 13, the inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million weight boxes, an increase of 111,000 weight boxes and 0.18% week - on - week, and 33.61% higher than the same period last year [8][9]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and positions, spreads, spot price trends, and futures price spreads of urea, soda ash, and glass, with all chart data sourced from iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][24]. Resource品 Team Research Members Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research, with rich research achievements and many awards [26]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass, and has won many honors [26]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and has won relevant honors [26].