中辉有色观点-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Silver: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term holding (★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: High - level under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong (★★) [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak (★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish (★★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall precious metals market is supported by factors such as repeated statements from Fed officials and weak micro - data, and long - term value allocation is recommended [1][2][3] - The copper market is bullish in the medium - to - long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and increasing green copper demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [1][5][6] - The zinc market is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [1][9][10] - The aluminum market shows a relatively strong short - term trend due to overseas supply contraction, but attention should be paid to downstream demand changes [1][11][13] - The nickel market is relatively weak because of high inventory and weak downstream consumption, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [1][15][17] - The lithium carbonate market remains in a tight supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to take profit at high levels and wait for dips to go long [1][19][21] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: US big data is blank, micro - data is weak, Fed officials' statements are repeated, silver has fallen from its high, but gold and silver are generally supported [2] - Basic Logic: The US government shutdown has ended; some micro - data has turned weak, such as Verizon's large - scale layoffs and an increase in US foreclosure property numbers; Fed officials' statements are inconsistent; China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves, and gold may be in a long - term bull market [2][3] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, domestic gold has support at 935, and silver has strong support at 12000. Long - term value - allocation positions should be held [3] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper is consolidating at a high level, facing pressure at the 88,000 - yuan mark [5] - Industrial Logic: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the contraction is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate is weak year - on - year [5] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to continue holding long positions in copper. In the medium - to - long - term, copper is still bullish. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [86,000 - 89,000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [10,500 - 11,000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc has fallen under pressure and is in a volatile consolidation [9] - Industrial Logic: Overseas zinc mine output has declined recently, zinc concentrate supply has tightened in the short term, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to fall. Consumption has entered the off - season, and overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to accumulate [9] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, zinc supply will increase and demand will decrease, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22,400 - 22,800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3,000 - 3,100] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices have risen and then fallen, and alumina is relatively weak [12] - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas supply is expected to be tight due to production cuts, and domestic demand is turning from peak to off - season. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased, and domestic high - cost enterprises may cut production due to losses, but the market is still in an oversupply situation in the short term [13] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take profit on Shanghai aluminum at high levels in the short term, and pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [21,300 - 22,300] [14] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices have continued to fall, and stainless steel is in a weak trend [16] - Industrial Logic: Overseas nickel inventory is at a high level, and domestic nickel inventory has also accumulated. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long term [17] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to short nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, and pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [117,500 - 120,000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2601 has fluctuated higher, hitting a recent high during the session, and the late - session gains have declined [20] - Industrial Logic: The supply - demand situation remains tight, with inventory decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks. Domestic production has reached a new high, and terminal market performance is strong. However, the resumption of production may put pressure on prices [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions near the previous high [86,000 - 88,000] [22]