中辉黑色观点-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The fundamentals are generally weak, with production and apparent demand declining month-on-month. The total inventory is down, but the inventory in Hangzhou is rising and at a multi-year high. It is currently near the previous low, testing the support at 3000, and may fluctuate repeatedly at low levels [1][4][5] - Hot-rolled Coil: Apparent demand and production have slightly declined, and inventory has increased seasonally, indicating some inventory pressure. It will operate within a range in the medium term and may fluctuate repeatedly at low levels in the short term [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: The static fundamentals are moderately bullish. Iron ore prices are firm in the short term, with iron water production increasing month-on-month, some blast furnaces resuming production, and reduced arrivals of foreign ore [1][7][8] - Coke: The expectation of the fourth round of price increases is strengthening, and coke enterprise profits have slightly improved. After the short-term phased demand is released, the restocking willingness has declined. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][10][11] - Coking Coal: The supply-demand pattern remains unchanged. After the short-term phased demand is released, the restocking willingness has declined, and coal mine inventories have slightly decreased. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][13][14] - Ferromanganese: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased, and inventory has continued to increase significantly compared to the previous period. The steel procurement in November has started, and attention should be paid to the final pricing. In the short term, the cost side provides some support for prices, and trading within a range is recommended [1][16][17] - Ferrosilicon: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase significantly compared to the previous period. In the short term, the cost side provides some support for prices, but the fundamentals have become looser, and trading within a range is recommended [1][16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [2] - Fundamentals: Rebar production and apparent demand are declining, and the total inventory is down, but the Hangzhou inventory is rising. Hot-rolled coil apparent demand and production have slightly declined, and inventory has increased seasonally [4] - Operation Suggestions: Rebar is testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate repeatedly at low levels. Hot-rolled coil will operate within a range in the medium term and may fluctuate repeatedly at low levels in the short term [5] Iron Ore - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of iron ore futures, spot, spreads, basis, freight, and spot indexes are provided [6] - Fundamentals: Iron water production is increasing month-on-month, some blast furnaces are resuming production, and there is more information on steel mill maintenance. Steel mills and ports are accumulating inventory, and the arrivals of foreign ore are decreasing. The static fundamentals are moderately bullish [8] - Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bullish [9] Coke - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of coke futures, spot, and weekly data are provided [10] - Fundamentals: The expectation of the fourth round of price increases is strengthening, and coke enterprise profits have slightly improved. After the short-term phased demand is released, the restocking willingness has declined [11] - Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see [12] Coking Coal - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of coking coal futures, spot, and weekly data are provided [13] - Fundamentals: Domestic coal mine production has slightly increased, but the supply recovery of some coal mines is slow. After the short-term phased demand is released, the restocking willingness has declined, and coal mine inventories have slightly decreased. The supply-demand pattern remains unchanged [14] - Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see [15] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [16] - Fundamentals: The supply in the production areas of both has slightly decreased, and inventory has continued to increase significantly compared to the previous period. The steel procurement in November has started, and attention should be paid to the final pricing. Ferrosilicon downstream demand has weakened marginally [17] - Operation Suggestions: For both, the cost side provides some support for prices in the short term. Ferromanganese should be traded within a range, and ferrosilicon should also be traded within a range as its fundamentals have become looser [18]