聚烯烃日报：聚烯烃开工继续提升，盘面上方空间受压制-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PE shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The high supply may continue to suppress the upside space of the polyethylene market, and it will mainly maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term. PP still has supply - demand contradictions, with the cost support strengthening slightly but still having a loosening expectation, and the market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The supply surplus pressure may suppress the upward rebound space [3]. - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; for inter - period trading, conduct a sell - near - buy - far spread for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,818 yuan/ton (+30), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,480 yuan/ton (+20). The LL spot price in North China is 6,800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL spot price in East China is 6,850 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 18 yuan/ton (-30), the LL basis in East China is 32 yuan/ton (-30), and the PP basis in East China is 0 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. 3.1.2 Upstream Supply - The PE operating rate is 83.1% (+0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. 3.1.3 Production Profit - The PE oil - based production profit is 288.4 yuan/ton (+187.2), the PP oil - based production profit is - 321.6 yuan/ton (+187.2), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 219.6 yuan/ton (-113.8) [1]. 3.1.4 Import and Export - The LL import profit is - 29.4 yuan/ton (+43.1), the PP import profit is - 185.3 yuan/ton (-19.7), and the PP export profit is - 3.3 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream Demand - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.4% (-0.4%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 44.2% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.2%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - Supply: The supply pressure is continuously high. Newly added maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Line 1 and Zhongsha Petrochemical linear device, but the maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the PE operating rate is continuously increasing. In addition, the newly added production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually being released [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate of PE has decreased month - on - month. The increase in the agricultural film operating rate has slowed down, and the demand is expected to shrink after late November. The packaging film operating rate has decreased month - on - month, and the overall demand follow - up is still limited [3]. - Cost: The oil price has rebounded slightly after a decline, but the rebound space is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the PE oil - based cost support is insufficient [3]. 3.2.2 PP - Supply: There is still an oversupply pattern. The 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical has been put into trial production, some devices are under maintenance, and some temporary maintenance has alleviated the market supply pressure to a certain extent, but the improvement of the supply - side oversupply pattern is still limited [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a rigid basis at low prices. The demand pull of the e - commerce festival is less than that of the same period, and the demand support is relatively limited [3]. - Cost: The international oil price fluctuates widely, the external propane price rebounds slightly, and the PP cost support strengthens slightly but still has a loosening expectation [3].