氯碱日报：港口库存小幅累库-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea spot new orders follow-up has slowed down. Affected by export news, the futures market has risen slightly and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Agricultural autumn fertilization is ending, and compound fertilizer autumn fertilization is also wrapping up. Winter storage fertilizer production has not yet started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental protection factors. The operating rate of melamine has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. In the medium to long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments have improved, factory inventories have decreased, and port inventories have slightly increased. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which improves the year-end export outlook and is expected to support the spot market. On November 7, India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tenders, intending to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender closes on November 20, is valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures on Shandong and Henan urea small particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [3][4][5] 2. Urea Production - Figures on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided [4][5] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows figures on production cost, spot production profit, and coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates [4][5] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Figures on urea small particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small and large particle FOB and CFR prices in China, and urea export and on - screen export profits are presented [4][5] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are provided [4][5] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and main contract positions and trading volumes are presented [4][5] Market Data - On November 13, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,658 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,590 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 58 yuan/ton (-3), the Henan basis was - 48 yuan/ton (-3), and the Jiangsu basis was - 68 yuan/ton (-13). Urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (unchanged), and export profit was 940 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (+0.08%), the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32% (-0.72%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42 days) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None [3]