新能源及有色金属日报：下游普遍观望情绪较重，铅价维持震荡格局-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core Viewpoints - Low inventory and tight ore costs support the lead price, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may lead to a pullback after a surge. It is recommended to sell high and buy low. The price range is between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,900 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.90/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,625 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,605 yuan/ton, closed at 17,650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 61,405 lots, an increase of 5,562 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position was 43,468 lots, a decrease of 7,071 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 17,815 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 17,575 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,705 yuan/ton, closed at 17,615 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 175 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, some lead brands were sold at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. In Hunan, smelters sold at a premium of 50 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. The futures price continued to fluctuate strongly, but downstream buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the intention to take delivery decreased significantly [2] Inventory - On November 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 13, the LME lead inventory was 223,975 tons, a decrease of 1,250 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]