工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 13, industrial silicon showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.22%. The position increased by 5,622 lots to 268,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,692 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 205 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,195 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.69%. The position increased by 3,409 lots to 144,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 2,195 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon plants in the southwest region have significantly reduced production. However, due to simultaneous production cuts in the downstream, the inventory reduction rhythm has not been achieved. The futures market has priced in the production - cut expectation in advance and has pulled back due to the drag of crystalline silicon [2]. - In November, the production schedules of polysilicon materials and downstream silicon wafers have both declined. The planned production - cut scale of silicon materials exceeds that of the downstream. However, under the strong quota limit of silicon wafers, the production - cut rhythm is ahead of the upstream [2]. - As the impact of the polysilicon production capacity platform news fades, the short - term weak reality has led the futures market to enter a low - level consolidation stage. A industry meeting was held, and CCTV reported on the same day that the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry had achieved remarkable results, which diluted the negative sentiment related to the production capacity platform [2]. - The polysilicon futures market is dominated by multiple news, and its volatility continues to increase. It is recommended that investors exercise caution [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,145 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 9,155 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained stable. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 549 to 45,387, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 5,365 to 230,900 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 4,700 tons to 447,700 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 735 yuan/ton to 54,195 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract remained unchanged at 51,335 yuan/ton. All spot prices remained stable. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 720 to 9,130, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 29.55 million tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.1 million tons to 27.7 million tons [3]. - Organic Silicon: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, and 2,200 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][35].