Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.93% at $4174.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.30% at $52.23 per ounce. The end of the US government shutdown led the market to focus on economic data, and the Fed's policy divergence increased market uncertainty. Weak economic data in the eurozone and an unclear global economic outlook supported the safe - haven demand for gold [5]. - US crude oil's main contract rose 0.19% to $58.6 per barrel, and Brent crude's main contract rose 0.29% to $62.89 per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reversed its previous forecast and expected global oil and gas demand to continue growing until 2050, with a more favorable long - term fundamental outlook [5]. - London's base metals all declined. LME zinc fell 1.12% to $3040.50 per ton, LME lead fell 0.98% to $2075.00 per ton, LME tin fell 0.89% to $37065.00 per ton, LME copper fell 0.78% to $10859.00 per ton, LME nickel fell 0.65% to $14955.00 per ton, and LME aluminum fell 0.60% to $2877.00 per ton [5]. - As of the close at 23:00 on October 13, most domestic futures contracts rose. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose nearly 2%, and PTA, ethylene glycol (EG), PX, styrene (EB), caustic soda, bottle chips, plastics, and soybeans rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, asphalt, fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell nearly 1% [7]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - As of the end of October 2025, China's total domestic and foreign currency deposits reached 332.92 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; domestic and foreign currency loans were 274.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; the stock of social financing at the end of October was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the broad - money (M2) balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; and the narrow - money (M1) balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - US President Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill will provide continuous funding for the federal government, allowing most government agencies to obtain operating funds until January 30, 2026 [9]. - Morgan Stanley's Bruna Skarica said the UK's latest GDP data was weaker than expected, indicating that the economy needed support to resume growth. The third - quarter GDP growth was 0.1%, lower than the 0.2% consensus growth predicted by economists in a Wall Street Journal survey. Skarica said the Bank of England was likely to cut interest rates in December to support the struggling economy [9]. - From November 10 to 13, 2025, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing visited Paris, France, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and held bilateral talks with relevant regulatory authorities, exchanging views on securities market regulation and further deepening and expanding bilateral pragmatic cooperation in the capital market [10]. - On November 13, at the 16th Caixin Summit, Wang Shengbang, Director of the Regulations Department of the Financial Regulatory Administration, revealed that the administration would soon issue a revised "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to support the mergers, reorganizations, and transformations of various enterprises, including high - tech startups [12]. - At a regular press conference on November 13, the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions about Sino - US soybean trade, stating that relevant information on the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including agricultural product trade, had been released [12]. - Premier Li Qiang will attend relevant meetings in Russia, visit Zambia, and attend the G20 Summit in South Africa from November 17 to 23 [12]. - As of November 12, 75% of the winter wheat sowing in China had been completed, with different progress in different regions [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - According to Longzhong Information, China's ethylene glycol sample demand this week was 552,200 tons, a 0.31% week - on - week decrease. The supply of the domestic polyester industry decreased more than it increased, and the weekly output and capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry declined slightly [14]. - China's methanol production this week was 1,976,025 tons, a decrease of 12,880 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 111,000 heavy boxes and a year - on - year increase of 33.61%. The national float glass production was 1.1139 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 0.76%. The inventory of Chinese styrene factories increased by 5.22% week - on - week [14]. - The IEA monthly report predicted that OPEC + supply would increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026 [16]. - As of the week ending November 12, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventory, including fuel oil and low - sulfur waxy residue, increased by 1.47 million barrels to a nine - week high of 25.952 million barrels [16]. Metal Futures - On November 13, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 198,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the 6th and 300 tons from the 10th. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [18]. - This week, the total SMM alumina inventory was 4.793 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79,000 tons. The alumina market remained in an oversupply situation, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18]. - This week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease. Some sectors were transitioning from the peak to the off - season, and some aluminum - rod enterprises reduced production [18]. - Supported by the easing of trade tensions, aluminum prices climbed above $2900 per metric ton. Aluminum has risen more than 13% this year and is the third - best - performing variety on the London Metal Exchange after copper and tin [19]. Black - Series Futures - According to Buguwang data, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan this week was 1.1963 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from last week. The inventory in warehouses and ports showed different trends [22]. - As of the week ending November 13, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the factory and social inventories decreased for five consecutive weeks [22]. - On November 13, in the Linfen Puxian coking coal auction, some lots had lower prices and some lots were unsold compared to the previous auction on November 3 [23]. - In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous ten - day period, with different comparison results in different time frames. The average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel also showed different trends [23]. - This week, the average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [24]. Agricultural Product Futures - Indian palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports in October decreased compared to September. The 2024/25 annual palm oil imports were lower than the previous year, and the share of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports fell below 50% for the first time. The 2024/25 annual vegetable oil imports were expected to be higher than the previous year [27]. - On November 12, the duty - paid cost of imported cotton under different tariffs was different from the domestic cotton price. After China cancelled the 15% counter - tariff on US cotton, the duty - paid cost of imported US cotton under a 10% tariff was higher than the domestic standard - grade cotton price [28]. - Brazil's CONAB predicted that the 2025/26 soybean production would be a record - high 177.6 million tons, with a slight decrease in the planting area compared to the October prediction. The soybean export volume was expected to increase by 5.11% year - on - year. The 2025/26 corn production was expected to be 138.84 million tons, higher than the October prediction [28]. - According to the US Department of Agriculture, the net sales and shipments of US soybeans and corn in the 2025/2026 season showed different trends compared to the previous week [29]. 3. Financial Market Finance - China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing visited France and Brazil, exchanging views on securities market regulation and capital - market cooperation, and also listened to the opinions of international institutional investors and Chinese - funded enterprises on opening up the Chinese capital market [32]. - The A - share market opened lower and closed higher. The lithium - battery industry chain soared, and some sectors performed well while others were weak. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73% to 4029.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.55%. The A - share trading volume for the day was 2.07 trillion yuan [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.56% to 27073.03 points, with some sectors performing well and others falling. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$3.521 billion, while Alibaba had a net buy - in of HK$1.375 billion [32]. - An investment guideline from a pension insurance company required investment managers to adjust their portfolios to meet style requirements [32]. - In September, the number of privately - offered asset - management products registered in China increased by 230.23% year - on - year, and the establishment scale increased by 69.2% year - on - year [33]. - Tencent Holdings' Q3 revenue was 192.87 billion yuan, a 15% year - on - year increase, and its operating profit was 72.57 billion yuan, an 18% year - on - year increase. Tencent also made some statements about its future plans [35]. - SMIC's Q3 revenue was 17.162 billion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year increase, and its net profit was 1.517 billion yuan, a 43.1% year - on - year increase. It also gave forecasts for the fourth quarter [35]. - JD Group's Q3 total revenue was 299.059 billion yuan, a 14.9% year - on - year increase, and its adjusted net profit was 5.8 billion yuan, a 56% year - on - year decrease. Its user scale and shopping frequency continued to grow [35]. - Bilibili's Q3 net operating revenue was 7.69 billion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase, and its adjusted net profit was 786 million yuan, a 233% year - on - year increase. Its core user indicators reached record highs in Q3 [35]. Industry - At the 2025 6G Development Conference, Vice - Minister Zhang Yunming of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said China had completed the first - stage 6G technology tests and formed over 300 key technology reserves. 6G is now in the international standard research stage and is expected to be commercially deployed around 2030 [36]. - At the 2025 World Power Battery Conference, Vice - Minister Xin Guobin of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said relevant development plans for intelligent, connected, new - energy vehicles and the new - battery industry would be formulated, and policies to promote the application of power batteries and regulate the industry would be studied [36]. - As the full exemption of new - energy vehicle purchase tax is about to end, 17 major automobile brands have launched purchase - tax subsidy plans [37]. - Many large insurance companies are launching "good start" products, with a trend towards floating - design dividend - insurance products [37]. - From January to October this year, China completed 1.00947 trillion yuan in water - conservancy construction investment, implemented 46,000 water - conservancy projects, and started 28,000 new projects [38]. Overseas - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release the October CPI report as scheduled. The White House said the October CPI and employment data might never be released, and the September employment report might be released next week with limited data [39]. - An IMF spokesperson said the US economy showed signs of weakness, and the fourth - quarter GDP growth was expected to be lower than the previous forecast [39]. - Some Fed officials expressed different views on interest - rate policies [39]. - European financial stability officials were discussing a plan to establish an alternative to the Fed's liquidity - support mechanism by integrating non - US central banks' US - dollar reserves [39]. - The UK's third - quarter GDP growth was only 0.1%, and the September GDP shrank by 0.1% [41]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed lower across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.65% to 47457.22 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.66% to 6737.49 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.29% to 22870.36 points. Disney and other stocks led the decline [42]. - European stocks also closed lower across the board. The German DAX Index fell 1.36% to 24048.84 points, the French CAC40 Index fell 0.11% to 8232.49 points, and the UK FTSE 100 Index fell 1.05% to 9807.68 points [42]. - Disney's adjusted EPS in the fourth fiscal quarter was $1.11, exceeding market expectations, and its revenue was $22.5 billion, slightly lower than market expectations. Disney also announced a 50% dividend increase and a doubling of the 2026 stock - buyback plan [42]. Commodities - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with gold and silver futures falling. Economic data and Fed policy affected the market [43]. - Crude - oil futures rose, supported by the IEA's revised forecast of long - term oil and gas demand [45]. - London's base metals all declined [45]. Bonds - The domestic bond market weakened, with most interest - rate bond yields rising slightly and Treasury - bond futures falling. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market liquidity improved [46]. - US Treasury yields rose across the board [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0959 on Thursday, a 213 - basis - point increase from the previous trading day, reaching a new high since mid - October 2024. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was adjusted down by 32 basis points [47]. - The US dollar index fell 0.30% to 99.18, and most non - US currencies rose. The Japanese yen against the US dollar fell to a nine - month low, and the euro against the yen approached a record high. The South Korean won against the US dollar fell, and the central bank said it would intervene if necessary [48][49]. 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include China's October industrial added value, retail sales, and other indicators, as well as data from other countries such as France, Spain, and the US [51]. - Upcoming events include central - bank operations, press conferences, and speeches by central - bank officials [53].
隔夜夜盘市场走势：资讯早间报-20251114
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-14 05:26