国债期货日报：社融偏弱，国债期货全线收跌-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is influenced by the stock market, the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the uncertainty of global trade, which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase. M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a - 2.38% change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a - 1.61% change [10]. - The dollar index is 99.17, with a - 0.31% change. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1021, with a - 0.26% change. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47%, with no change. DR007 is 1.48%, with a - 0.82% change. R007 is 1.51%, with a - 1.24% change. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58%, with a + 0.16% change. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a + 0.16% change [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 13, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.41 yuan, and 116.13 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.08%, - 0.10%, and - 0.26% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.002 yuan, 0.018 yuan, 0.025 yuan, and - 0.099 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - In the first half of the year, the fiscal operation was generally stable, with revenue gradually recovering and key expenditures effectively guaranteed. Ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and special bonds were accelerating their implementation. Looking forward, positive fiscal tools will continue to be used to balance stable growth, people's livelihood protection, and risk prevention [2]. - On November 13, 2025, the central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.315%, 1.474%, 1.500%, and 1.518% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific summarized information provided other than various spread - related chart descriptions. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. Strategy - For unilateral trading, with the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - For hedging, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].