Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment for soybean meal is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, chasing long positions should be done with caution. Opportunities to go long on dips are recommended. Attention should be paid to the November USDA report and the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1]. - The sentiment for rapeseed meal is also bullish. However, due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited. Follow - up developments in China - Canada trade should be monitored [1]. - Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand balance. With inventory accumulation in October and weak export data in the first 10 days of November, there is still an expectation of inventory build - up. Caution is needed when going long on palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term. Although there is no strong bullish driver currently, it can be treated as a rebound. Attention should be paid to the November USDA report and the weather in Brazil [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to be bullish in the short term. The zero - operation of coastal oil mills, zero inventory of rapeseed, and zero import of rapeseed in November have led to a significant rebound in domestic rapeseed oil prices [1]. - Cotton is expected to have a short - term adjustment. The market is digesting the new - season supply pressure, but the consumption outlook may not be overly pessimistic. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand balance sheet on Friday [1]. - For jujubes, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Considering the high - inventory of old jujubes and limited acceptance of new products, short - selling operations should be carried out cautiously [1]. - For live pigs, the supply pressure in Q4 remains high. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts, be vigilant against the rebound risk of the 01 contract, and consider the 03 contract. Attention should also be paid to the anti - arbitrage opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market Situation: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 10.334 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 705,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.6195 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 511,600 tons or 7.20%. The soybean meal inventory was 998,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 154,400 tons or 13.39% [3]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3,071 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,106.57 yuan/ton, up 8.86 yuan or 0.29% [2]. - Trading Strategy: Due to trade costs and potential Brazilian planting premiums, the market has a bullish sentiment, but chasing long positions should be cautious. Look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to the USDA report and Brazilian soybean planting [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: As of November 7, the coastal area's main oil mills had a rapeseed inventory of 0 tons, a rapeseed meal inventory of 5,000 tons, and an unexecuted contract of 5,000 tons, all showing a week - on - week decrease [6]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,492 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day. The national average spot price remained unchanged at 2,588.95 yuan/ton [4]. - Trading Strategy: The market's expectation of an improvement in China - Canada trade tariffs has cooled. Although the sentiment is bullish, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the off - season and high inventories. Monitor China - Canada trade developments [1][6]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 597,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,500 tons or 0.76% [8]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,752 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.09% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,725 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.34% [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. With inventory accumulation and weak export data, be cautious when going long [1][8]. Cotton - Market Situation: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, the daily listing volume is about 14,000 tons; in Pakistan, the new cotton listing volume as of the end of October was 688,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 63.67% [10]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 0.22% [9]. - Trading Strategy: The international market has a bullish sentiment due to the potential US government shutdown. Domestically, the new cotton harvest is almost complete, and the consumption outlook may not be overly pessimistic. Look for short - term low - buying opportunities and pay attention to the USDA supply - demand balance sheet [1][12]. Jujubes - Market Situation: The Xinjiang main production area is in the concentrated harvest stage. As of November 6, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,541 tons, a week - on - week increase of 193 tons or 2.06% [15]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9,195 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan or 1.82% from the previous day. The spot price of some varieties remained stable or decreased slightly [13]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - selling operations should be carried out cautiously based on the main purchase price and progress [1][15]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: As of November 10, the overall group's slaughter progress was about 2% behind schedule. The number of newly - born piglets in October increased by 105,300 to 5.7813 million. The number of fertile sows in September decreased by 30,000 to 40.35 million [16]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract (lh2601) closed at 11,860 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 0.55% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.25% [16]. - Trading Strategy: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. Short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts, be vigilant against the rebound risk of the 01 contract, and consider the 03 contract. Look for anti - arbitrage opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [1][17].
中辉农产品观点-20251114
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-14 05:29