燃料油：弱势运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since late October, affected by supply - side disturbances and seasonal weakness in demand, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line. In a bearish atmosphere, it is expected that fuel oil will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2]. - In the context of increasing macro - risks, the fuel oil futures market is under short - term pressure, and its subsequent trend depends more on the structural changes on the supply side rather than the strong recovery of demand [3]. - Although the short - term macro - outlook is weak and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress the fuel oil futures price, the restricted supply pattern of Russian fuel oil is difficult to reverse in the short term, and geopolitical risk premiums will still exist. Affected by the recent sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it is expected that fuel oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Since late October, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line [2]. Macro - factors - Recent "hawkish" signals from Fed officials mean that the US will maintain a high - interest - rate environment for a longer time, which boosts the US dollar index. The government "shutdown" has dragged down the economy, and the weakening macro - expectations will have multiple impacts on the fuel oil futures market [2]. - High - interest - rate environment suppresses global economic growth expectations and the demand for dollar - denominated commodities, increasing the volatility and risk of trading and indirectly suppressing the consumption demand for marine fuel oil [2]. Supply - side Factors - Since August 2025, Russian energy facilities have been frequently attacked, and its refining capacity has declined by about 20% as of the end of October. In November, the US and the EU further tightened sanctions on Russian oil companies, reducing its export capacity [3]. - In the Middle East, some Saudi refineries are in the maintenance cycle, and some Kuwaiti refineries have shut down part of their production capacity due to device fires. In Latin America, the export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in countries such as Mexico shows a seasonal decline, and new secondary processing devices in some refineries will also restrict supply growth [3]. Demand - side Factors - As the crude oil quota of domestic refineries is running out in the fourth quarter, some refineries tend to purchase high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock for delayed coking units, providing new demand support [4]. - The number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers globally has exceeded 4500 in 2025. Due to the economic advantages of using high - sulfur fuel oil after installation, the demand from this part of the fleet remains stable [4].