金融期货早评-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Financial Futures - The RMB strengthened significantly against the US dollar due to multiple internal and external factors, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom with a slowly declining bottom" [2] - Short - term stock indices may be under pressure, but with policy support, they are expected to oscillate [3][5] - Treasury bond mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term positions can be bought on dips [6] - Commodities - Precious Metals: In the medium - to - long term, the price of precious metals will continue to rise, and short - term corrections are opportunities to add long positions [8][10] - Copper: The external copper price pulled back after rising, and the Shanghai copper is likely to follow. The price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][12] - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum is in high - level oscillation; alumina is weakly running; cast aluminum alloy is in high - level oscillation [13][14] - Zinc: It is in high - level oscillation with strong support below [14] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They continue to oscillate, waiting for clear signals, and the downside space is greater than the upside space [15][16] - Tin: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended [17] - Lithium Carbonate: It is prone to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a view of oscillating strongly, but callback risks should be watched out for [18] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: They are expected to oscillate widely due to weak fundamentals [19][20] - Lead: It is in strong - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to lower entry opportunities [21] - Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They are expected to oscillate within a range, with rebar in the 2900 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil in the 3100 - 3400 range [22][23] - Iron Ore: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation with no significant driving force [24] - Coking Coal and Coke: The short - term futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [25][26] - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: They are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and cost support [26] - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: It will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term, with room for further decline [28][30] - LPG: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - PTA - PX: They are expected to oscillate strongly following the cost side in the short term, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - MEG - Bottle Chip: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [36][38] - PP: It will oscillate at the bottom with limited downward space [39][41] - PE: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change, and the upward driving force is insufficient [42][44] - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - Asphalt: It is weakly viewed in the short term, but pay attention to the trading rhythm [49][50] - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - Urea: The short - term market is stable and strong, but the high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda Ash: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - Glass: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - Caustic Soda: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is expected to oscillate in the short term, and offset paper is expected to stabilize weakly [57][58] - Log: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: In China, the consumer price index has rebounded marginally, and boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. In the US, the government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to the release of economic data and the Fed's decision - making [1] - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB strengthened against the US dollar due to multiple factors. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [2] - Stock Index: The short - term stock index may be under pressure due to weak credit and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, but it is expected to oscillate with policy support [3][5] - Treasury Bond: The short - term bond market is in narrow - range oscillation. In the context of weak economic fundamentals, long positions can be held [5][6] Commodities - Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The price pulled back after rising. The 12 - month rate - cut expectation is uncertain. In the medium - to - long term, the price will continue to rise [8][9][10] - Base Metals - Copper: The external copper price pulled back after rising. The Shanghai copper is likely to follow, and the price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][11][12] - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum is affected by funds and industry fundamentals; alumina is in an oversupply situation; cast aluminum alloy follows aluminum [13][14] - Zinc: It is in high - level oscillation, with the smelting end having a willingness to cut production in November, and the bottom support is strong [14] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They continue to oscillate, with cost support weakening and limited upward momentum [15][16] - Tin: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended due to supply shortages [16][17] - Lithium Carbonate: It is in a situation of increased production and inventory reduction, with good demand, and is expected to oscillate strongly [17][18] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: They have weak demand, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [19][20] - Lead: It is in strong - level oscillation. After the supply problem is gradually solved, it will slowly return to balance [21] - Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel market is in a macro vacuum period, and the core contradiction returns to the fundamentals. Rebar's supply - demand balance improves marginally, while hot - rolled coil has high inventory [22][23] - Iron Ore: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation, and the port inventory is in a cumulative trend [23][24] - Coking Coal and Coke: The short - term price may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [24][25][26] - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: They are in a situation of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to oscillate [26] - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The EIA inventory has increased more than expected, and it will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term [28][29][30] - LPG: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - PTA - PX: The short - term supply - demand is strong, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - MEG - Bottle Chip: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [36][38] - PP: It will oscillate at the bottom, with supply pressure and improved demand during the "Double Eleven" [39][40][41] - PE: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change [42][44] - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - Asphalt: It is weakly viewed in the short term, with a loose supply - demand pattern and cost - side influence [49][50] - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - Urea: The short - term market is stable and strong due to export quota increase, but high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda Ash: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - Glass: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - Caustic Soda: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with multiple long and short factors intertwined [57] - Offset Paper: The futures price is expected to weaken and stabilize [58] - Log: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58]