新能源及有色金属日报：海外升水短期难回落-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing supply pressure. Overseas warehouse receipts remain low with high premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, and micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro background remains positive [4] Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $128.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,686 lots, and the position was 102,938 lots. The highest price was 22,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,550 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 157,900 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 37,800 tons, up 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis Summary - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses. Overseas warehouse receipts are still low, and domestic inventories are falling [4] Strategy Summary - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]