新能源及有色金属日报：铝价表现内强外弱-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread [9] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, and the absolute value of social inventory is still low, which is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is favorable, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio. However, the domestic price increase lacks fundamental data support, and a short - term callback after the sentiment may occur, but the callback depth is limited. If the destocking of social inventory goes smoothly, the aluminum price is expected to break through upwards [6]. - For alumina, the supply of bauxite is under pressure, the smelting loss has not improved, the supply side has not seen large - scale production cuts, the pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the price is undervalued, there may be disturbances in overseas mines [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 21,780 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a change of 285 yuan/ton. The highest price was 22,145 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,292 lots, and the open interest was 446,659 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 621,000 tons, with a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 64,742 tons, with a change of 924 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 553,200 tons, with a change of 9,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,925 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,945 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,825 yuan/ton, closed at 2,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 17 yuan/ton (0.60% change). The highest price was 2,847 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,811 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 299,017 lots, and the open interest was 407,444 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 72,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 59,000 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,469 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5].