贵金属日报：通胀数据缺席，美联储降息路径仍不确定-20251114

Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Views - The impact of the US government shutdown persists, and the future path of the Fed's interest rate cuts remains highly uncertain due to data shortages. It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 930 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 12,200 yuan/kg and 12,700 yuan/kg. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation and Fed Policy - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release the October CPI report as scheduled on Thursday. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that the US September employment report may be released next week, but only new employment data will be available, not the unemployment rate. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Kashkari does not support the last rate cut and has not decided on the December policy meeting. Musalem believes policymakers should be cautious about further rate cuts as inflation remains above the 2% target. Hammack thinks the Fed should keep interest rates unchanged to continue reducing inflation [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 947.60 yuan/gram and closed at 961.22 yuan/gram, a 1.63% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 617.04 yuan/gram and closed at 615.56 yuan/gram, a 0.04% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 12,092.00 yuan/kg and closed at 12,588.00 yuan/kg, a 4.27% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,130,701 lots, and the open interest was 231,753 lots. In the night session, it opened at 7,633 yuan/kg and closed at 7,644 yuan/kg, a 0.27% decrease from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 13, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.08%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.52%, a 0.02% change from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 13, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 2,113 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,907 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 529,805 lots, a 26.50% change from the previous day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,433 lots, and short positions increased by 2,219 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 2,510,094 lots, a 69.49% change from the previous day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,046.64 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,089 tons [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -16.08 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,502.09 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 76.36, a 2.52% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 79.94, a 1.00% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On November 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 66,608 kg, a 28.92% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 605,638 kg, a -30.42% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7].