石油沥青日报：原油端大幅下跌，成本端支撑转弱-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The sharp decline in the crude oil end weakened the cost - side support, driving the asphalt futures market lower. The terminal demand for asphalt remained weak, the downstream procurement was cautious, and the market trading atmosphere was average. After the sharp drop in oil prices, the profits of refineries with quotas were boosted, which would continue to suppress asphalt prices, and there was no signal of a reversal in the market weakness [1] Market Analysis - On November 13, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3029 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 193,772 lots, a decrease of 4,500 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 269,855 lots, an increase of 86,160 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,156 - 3,700 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 2,980 - 3,620 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,150 - 3,210 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,300 - 3,400 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions continued to decline, while those in other regions were relatively stable [1] Figures - The figures cover various aspects of asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract), trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproof, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]