GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-11-14 05:35Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Tencent Holdings [2][55]. Core Insights - The report highlights solid revenue and profit growth, driven by AI integration in advertising technology and the expansion of WeChat's AI capabilities [3][4]. - Tencent's revenue for Q3 FY25 reached 192.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, with adjusted net profit rising by 18.0% to 70.6 billion RMB [8][46]. - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for FY25-27 to 752.9 billion, 841.8 billion, and 925.3 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 14.0%, 11.8%, and 9.9% [8][46]. Financial Summary - Revenue Growth: - FY25 Q3 revenue: 192.9 billion RMB (+15.4% YoY) - FY25 estimated revenue: 752.9 billion RMB (+14.0% YoY) [5][17]. - Profitability: - Adjusted net profit for FY25 Q3: 70.6 billion RMB (+18.0% YoY) - Adjusted net profit margin: 36.6% (+0.8 percentage points YoY) [5][17]. - R&D Investment: - R&D expenditure for FY25 Q3: 22.8 billion RMB (+27.6% YoY), representing 11.8% of revenue [14][24]. - Capital Expenditure: - Capital expenditure for FY25 Q3: 13.0 billion RMB (-24.0% YoY) [8][46]. Segment Performance - Value-Added Services: - Revenue: 95.9 billion RMB (+15.9% YoY), with domestic and overseas game revenues growing by 14.7% and 43.4% respectively [8][27]. - Marketing Services: - Revenue: 36.2 billion RMB (+20.8% YoY), benefiting from increased user engagement and AI-driven advertising targeting [8][29]. - Financial Technology and Enterprise Services: - Revenue: 58.2 billion RMB (+9.6% YoY), driven by growth in cloud services and WeChat store transactions [8][35]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects adjusted net profits for FY25-27 to be 261.9 billion, 301.8 billion, and 338.3 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 17.6%, 15.2%, and 12.1% [8][46]. - A target price of 785 HKD is set for FY25, based on a 25x PE ratio [8][47].