玖龙纸业（02689）：浆纸一体红利持续显现

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company has established itself as the world's largest paper manufacturing group and a leader in pulp and paper integration, with a current design capacity exceeding 23 million tons [1][14]. - Revenue has shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over the past decade, and is projected to reach 63.24 billion in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1][22]. - The company's net profit is expected to rebound significantly, with projections of 1.77 billion in FY2025, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 135% [1][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was founded in 1995 and has expanded its operations over three decades, establishing a comprehensive industrial chain [1][14]. - It has diversified its product offerings to include various types of environmentally friendly packaging paper, cultural paper, and high-end wood pulp paper [1][14]. 2. Market Dynamics - The demand for corrugated paper is expected to grow steadily, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.3% over the past five years [2][35]. - On the supply side, the industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, but the growth in new capacity is expected to slow down, leading to a gradual improvement in the supply-demand balance [2][40]. 3. Company Strategy - The company has been expanding its production capacity even during industry downturns, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 2025 [4][51]. - It is focusing on high-end products and optimizing its product structure, which has led to a significant reduction in per-ton costs [4][63]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.49 billion, and 3.84 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.6X, 7.7X, and 7.0X [5][6]. - The current PE and price-to-book (PB) ratios are at historical lows, indicating potential for upward earnings revisions as the company continues its integration strategy [5][6].