黑色商品日报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term fluctuations in the steel plate are limited, and it may continue to trade in a narrow range. The iron ore price shows an oscillating trend. The coking coal and coke plates are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also in an oscillating pattern, with limited fundamental driving forces [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - The rebar futures market had a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 10,700 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume rebounded. This week, the national rebar production decreased by 85,400 tons to 2 million tons, social inventory decreased by 99,500 tons to 4.1575 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 64,200 tons to 1.6042 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 21,500 tons to 216,370 tons. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term plate may continue to trade in a narrow range [1]. Iron Ore - The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures showed an oscillating trend, closing at 772.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and a decrease of 7,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while that from other countries increased. The pig iron output increased by 26,600 tons to 2.3688 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 1.8871 million tons to 158.1284 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 660,000 tons. In the short term, the ore price will oscillate [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal plate declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.41%, with a decrease of 991 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal varieties decreased. The winter safety inspection of coal mines was upgraded, and the downstream coking enterprises slowed down the restocking rhythm. Although some steel mills accepted the fourth - round price increase of coke, the coking coal demand is expected to increase, and the short - term plate is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [1]. Coke - The coke plate declined. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1686 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.21%, with a decrease of 164 lots in positions. The spot price of port coke decreased. The coking enterprises' losses expanded, and the production capacity utilization rate and output decreased slightly. The steel mills' demand for coke declined, but the inventory in steel mills was still at a medium - low level. The short - term plate is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillating manner, with the main contract closing at 5756 yuan/ton, down 0.24% month - on - month, and the positions of the main contract increased by 8209 lots to 362,200 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5550 - 5720 yuan/ton. The production of manganese silicon decreased slightly, the number of mainstream steel tenders decreased, the cost was supported, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall situation is an oscillating pattern [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillating manner, with the main contract closing at 5506 yuan/ton, up 0.22% month - on - month, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 13,709 lots to 149,200 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5130 - 5200 yuan/ton. New production capacity was put into operation, the steel demand was weak, the non - steel demand was okay, the number of mainstream steel tenders decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit, spread data [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - delivery contract spreads, inter - variety contract spreads, and rebar profits of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, helping to visually analyze the price trends and relationships of these commodities [6][17][26][43][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [54][55].