宏观日报：上游原材料价格分化-20251114

Industry Overview Upstream - Prices of aluminum and copper in the non - ferrous metals sector have rebounded; international oil prices and liquefied natural gas prices are fluctuating [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, PX prices are rising, while the operating rates of PTA and polyester are low; power plant coal consumption has decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally increased slightly; in the service industry, the film box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic flights has seasonally increased slightly [3] Macroeconomic Events Production Industry - China is designing a new rare - earth export licensing system, and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out export control work on rare - earth related items in accordance with laws and regulations [1] Service Industry - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. At the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; M0 balance was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates positive signals such as increased business activity and improved consumer demand [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2161.4 yuan/ton | 0.40% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.5 yuan/kg | 1.25% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8710.0 yuan/ton | 0.11% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14819.5 yuan/ton | - 0.29% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | - 0.60% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 87301.7 yuan/ton | 1.59% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22618.0 yuan/ton | 0.63% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21933.3 yuan/ton | 2.60% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121150.0 yuan/ton | - 0.03% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17606.3 yuan/ton | 1.51% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 794.7 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3302.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | - 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14883.3 yuan/ton | 1.82% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 772.0 | - 0.58% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 58.5 dollars/barrel | - 1.86% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 62.7 dollars/barrel | - 1.28% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4206.0 yuan/ton | - 1.91% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4591.6 yuan/ton | 0.67% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6988.3 yuan/ton | 0.02% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 2.03% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1214.3 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index | 136.4 | - 0.16% | | | Building materials composite index | 112.3 points | 0.42% | | | Concrete price index | 90.8 points | - 0.14% | [38]