新能源及有色金属日报：政策及情绪扰动仍在，多晶硅盘面维持宽幅震荡-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the overall inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote, there may be room for the price to rise. For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, so the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - Futures Market: On November 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9150 yuan/ton and closed at 9145 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 267,758 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,387 lots, a decrease of 549 lots from the previous day [1]. - Supply Side: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on November 13 was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week. The inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 127,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 419,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [1]. - Consumption Side: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 12,000 - 12,500 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising this week, with the current quotation range up about 1100 yuan/ton from the average price last week. Shandong monomer enterprises quoted 12,500 yuan/ton, and other domestic monomer enterprises stopped quoting [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken on dips for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - Futures Market: On November 13, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, opening at 53,500 yuan/ton and closing at 54,195 yuan/ton, a 3.69% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 144,026 lots (140,617 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 277,916 lots [4]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.09% month - on - month increase, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42GW, a 5.14% month - on - month increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a - 0.74% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 13.12GW, a - 2.45% month - on - month change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [6][7]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8].