Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Treasury Bonds: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7]. - Stock Index Futures: Low risk of significant decline, consider taking long positions opportunistically [8][9]. - Precious Metals: Temporarily observe and wait for long - entry opportunities [10][11]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Prices may remain weak in the medium - term, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - Iron Ore: Market supply - demand pattern weakens, focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Consider buying on dips [17]. - Ferroalloys: Short - term supply surplus may continue, consider long positions at low levels when spot falls into the loss range [20]. - Crude Oil: Temporarily observe the main contract [23]. - Fuel Oil: Temporarily observe the main contract [25]. - Polyolefins: Focus on long - entry opportunities [27]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to oscillate [30]. - Natural Rubber: Focus on long - entry opportunities [31]. - PVC: Focus on changes in the supply side [34]. - Urea: Limited downside space [36]. - PX: May oscillate and adjust, with support at the bottom, consider trading within the range [37]. - PTA: May oscillate, treat with caution and control risks [38]. - Ethylene Glycol: May face pressure in the short - term, focus on port inventory and supply changes [39]. - Short Fibers: May oscillate following costs, control risks [41]. - Bottle Chips: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, control risks [42]. - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - Copper: Expected to oscillate at high levels [44][45]. - Aluminum: Expected to run at high levels [46][47]. - Zinc: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [48][49]. - Lead: Expected to oscillate strongly [50][51]. - Tin: Expected to oscillate strongly [52][53]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate [54]. - Soybean Oil and Meal: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [56]. - Palm Oil: Consider buying on dips [58]. - Rapeseed Meal and Oil: For rapeseed meal, consider a buy - near and sell - far strategy [61]. - Cotton: Expected to be weak in the short - term, with long - term benefits from the suspension of additional tariffs [63]. - Sugar: Expected to oscillate [68]. - Apples: Expected to run strongly [70]. - Hogs: Consider short - selling on rebounds, paying attention to consumption changes [72]. - Eggs: Hold short positions, pay attention to changes in elimination sentiment and short - term cost collapse [74]. - Corn and Starch: For corn, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: All treasury bond futures contracts closed lower in the previous trading day. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.26% to 116.130 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10% to 108.410 yuan, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08% to 105.885 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% to 102.462 yuan [5]. - Macro Data: In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year - on - year; M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, up 6.2% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.55 trillion yuan, up 10.6% year - on - year [6]. - Outlook: The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [6]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: Stock index futures showed mixed performance in the previous trading day. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.06%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.81%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.71%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.67% [8]. - Outlook: The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the risk of significant decline is small. Consider taking long positions opportunistically [8]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: Gold main contract closed at 961.22, up 1.63%, and closed at 956.96 at night; silver main contract closed at 12,588, up 4.27%, and closed at 12405 at night [10]. - Factors: The end of the US government shutdown, complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and possible Fed rate cuts are positive factors, but the recent sharp rise and high valuation suggest waiting for long - entry opportunities [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Performance: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations in the previous trading day. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2940 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3060 - 3210 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3250 - 3270 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - Demand: Long - term real estate decline affects rebar demand, but there is a slight improvement in the medium - term. Steel mill production has decreased, but inventory is higher than last year. Hot - rolled coils may follow the same trend [12]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: Iron ore futures oscillated in the previous trading day. PB powder port spot price was 781 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder was 680 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply - Demand: Iron ore demand has declined, supply has increased, and port inventory has risen, weakening the market pattern [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated in the previous trading day [16]. - Supply - Demand: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand for high - price goods has decreased. Coke supply has decreased due to environmental protection and cost factors, and demand from steel mills has weakened [17]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: Manganese silicon main contract fell 0.24% to 5756 yuan/ton, and silicon iron main contract rose 0.22% to 5506 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply - Demand: Manganese ore supply has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. Production is high, demand is weak, and supply is in surplus in the short - term [19][20]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: INE crude oil fell sharply in the previous trading day due to a pessimistic OPEC monthly report [21]. - Factors: OPEC predicts supply - demand balance in 2026, and the US government shutdown has affected data release. The purchase of crude oil by the US Energy Department provides some support [21][22]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: Fuel oil fell sharply in the previous trading day, following the decline of crude oil [24]. - Factors: Market expects sufficient supply, sanctions on Russia and reduced Sino - US trade friction are positive, but the sharp fall in crude oil prices has an impact [25]. Polyolefins - Market Performance: Hangzhou PP market prices mostly fell, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao market was adjusted [26]. - Supply - Demand: Some enterprises had delayed production, and e - commerce orders increased temporarily, but new orders may be insufficient after the e - commerce event [26]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: Synthetic rubber main contract rose 0.91%, and the price in Shandong was adjusted to 11300 yuan/ton [28]. - Supply - Demand: Raw material prices have fallen, supply is tight in some areas, and demand and inventory have changed [28][29]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: Natural rubber main contract rose 0.56%, and 20 - type rubber main contract rose 0.12%. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14850 yuan/ton [30]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is affected by weather and factory procurement, demand has slightly increased, and inventory has decreased [30]. PVC - Market Performance: PVC main contract rose 0.02%, and the spot price was stable [32]. - Supply - Demand: Supply exceeds demand, and the price may have limited downward space and needs fundamental improvement [32]. Urea - Market Performance: Urea main contract rose 0.36%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was adjusted to 1580 yuan/ton [35]. - Supply - Demand: Supply has slightly increased, demand is affected by environmental protection and agricultural factors, and inventory is higher than expected [35]. PX - Market Performance: PX main contract rose 0.86%, and PXN spread was adjusted to 240 dollars/ton [37]. - Supply - Demand: Supply has slightly decreased, and the short - term supply - demand structure has improved [37]. PTA - Market Performance: PTA2601 main contract rose 0.64%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 170 yuan/ton [38]. - Supply - Demand: Supply has changed due to plant operations, and demand from the polyester industry is stable [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: Ethylene glycol main contract fell 0.77%, and the inventory in East China ports has increased [39]. - Supply - Demand: Supply has decreased slightly due to maintenance, but port arrivals have increased, and demand support is limited [39]. Short Fibers - Market Performance: Short fiber 2602 main contract fell 0.45%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 1100 yuan/ton [40][41]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is at a relatively high level, demand has little change, and cost - driven factors are strengthening [41]. Bottle Chips - Market Performance: Bottle chip 2601 main contract fell 0.35%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 420 yuan/ton [42]. - Supply - Demand: Supply has decreased, and export growth has slowed down, but it remains at a high level [42]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract rose 1.39% to 87840 yuan/ton [43]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and inventory has decreased [43]. Copper - Market Performance: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 87400 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [44]. - Supply - Demand: Global copper mine supply is tight, production is affected, and demand is mixed. The price may oscillate at a high level [44]. Aluminum - Market Performance: Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; alumina main contract closed at 2834 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [46]. - Supply - Demand: Alumina supply is abundant, and aluminum production may be affected by the heating season. Demand is differentiated, and the price may run at a high level [46]. Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22635 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [48]. - Supply - Demand: Zinc concentrate processing fees are under pressure, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The price may oscillate within a range [48]. Lead - Market Performance: Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17585 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [50]. - Supply - Demand: Lead concentrate processing fees are under pressure, and demand has recovered, but high prices may affect production. Inventory has increased slightly [50]. Tin - Market Performance: The main contract fell 0.74% to 294500 yuan/ton [52]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is tight due to slow mine复产 and strict regulations in Indonesia. Demand shows some resilience, and the price may oscillate strongly [52][53]. Nickel - Market Performance: The main contract fell 0.66% to 118050 yuan/ton [54]. - Supply - Demand: Nickel ore price is stable, but downstream demand is weak, and inventory is relatively high. The price may oscillate [54]. Soybean Oil and Meal - Market Performance: Soybean meal main contract rose 0.59% to 3071 yuan/ton, and soybean oil main contract rose 0.60% to 8316 yuan/ton [55]. - Supply - Demand: Brazilian soybean planting progress is slow, and domestic soybean supply is abundant. Feed demand is expected to grow moderately [55][56]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil reversed losses and closed slightly higher [57]. - Supply - Demand: Production in Malaysia and Indonesia is expected to increase, and exports in Malaysia have decreased. Domestic inventory is at a medium level [57]. Rapeseed Meal and Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed prices rose, and domestic rapeseed and related product prices changed [60]. - Supply - Demand: Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at high levels [60]. Cotton - Market Performance: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly, and international cotton prices were under seasonal pressure [62]. - Supply - Demand: Domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and textile exports are relatively stable. International cotton prices lack upward momentum [62][63]. Sugar - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar rose with increased positions, and international raw sugar fell [65]. - Supply - Demand: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic production and imports may put pressure on prices [65][67]. Apples - Market Performance: Domestic apple futures rose with increased positions [69]. - Supply - Demand: Late - maturing apple quality is poor, inventory is lower than last year, and prices are stable and firm [69]. Hogs - Market Performance: The national average price of hogs was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan [71]. - Supply - Demand: Supply may increase in the second half of the month, and consumption improvement is limited [71][72]. Eggs - Market Performance: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan, and in the main sales areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, unchanged [73]. - Supply - Demand: Egg production is at a high level, but supply may improve marginally, and demand may remain weak [73][74]. Corn and Starch - Market Performance: Corn main contract rose 0.37% to 2186 yuan/ton, and corn starch main contract rose 0.68% to 2507 yuan/ton [75]. - Supply - Demand: Corn supply is abundant, and demand is growing slightly. Corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77].
西南期货早间评论-20251114
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-11-14 05:56