新能源及有色金属日报：库存继续减少，碳酸锂期货高位宽幅震荡-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously decreasing, and consumption has certain support. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine end resumes production, the inventory may change from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the market may decline at that time [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 13, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 86,500 yuan/ton and closed at 87,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.39% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,106,011 lots, and the open interest was 536,514 lots. The previous day's open interest was 528,966 lots. The current basis was -3,370 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,508 lots, a change of -779 lots compared to the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,100 - 86,600 yuan/ton, a change of 1,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,500 - 82,500 yuan/ton, a change of 900 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,050 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with the operating rates of both the spodumene end and the salt lake end maintained above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [2]. - In the demand aspect, both commercial and passenger new - energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight [2]. - As of November 13, 17 mainstream automobile brands have launched a purchase tax support plan [2]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 11 tons to 21,545 tons. The total inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons. The consumption end has strong support recently [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude in the short term. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5].